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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]WRT no boundaries, sure tons of high SES people would move, [b]but many wouldn't.[/b] Either way, all those folks bailing for the suburbs[b] would be replaced by younger families who would suddenly find good housing stock i[/b]n the city more affordable. I'm not sure [b]anyone would even miss the high SES folks [/b]bailing to the suburbs. [/quote]

We don't know each other obviously on the anonymous internet, but I am nevertheless certain you are young.  Young enough to have not lived through the early 70s and been cognizant of what was happening around you WRT public schools.

the first "S" in SES is for socio (economic status).  right?  so by saying 'high SES,' this means that this group of parent-homebuyers has high educational attainment, high career success, high prestige within their careers, high discipline, high drive, high goal-oriented behavior .... [i]regardless of their take-home pay[/i].   (the "E" in SES).

This ^^^ breed of parent-homebuyer, isn't going to rush right in and "replace" the newly destabilized DCPS system, buying right-priced housing that was 1) existing, & just vacated by departed high SES parents or 2) newly built affordable middle-class SFHs.      This ^^^breed of parent-homebuyer didn't get where they are today (remember, great pedigree, not "high paycheck") by settling for good enough, so-so, destablized schools and 1+ hour bus commutes for their 4 year olds.    That would be an irrational decision, and adults with the high SOCIO status didn't make it to the top by making a series of irrational decisions.

Also?  you are way off base on your low estimate about the percentage of high achievers who will decamp to other school districts or private.   see, e.g., every. single. US city where bussing occurred 
[/quote]

Simple example to demonstrate ...

In this "no-neighborhood schools" paradigm, where every seat becomes a lottery chance, the Janney Family of AU Park enters the mandatory lottery to find out where their son will attend high school.   Their lottery results assign their teen to Dunbar, where a whopping 95% of students are not proficient in math http://profiles.dcps.dc.gov/Dunbar+High+School

The Janney Family rationally decides not to send their capable son to a high school where 95% of students can't add 4 numbers together.   The Janney Family puts their brick colonial on the market and moves to a different school district in Maryland or Virginia that has assigned schools.   (they can't afford private x 3 kids).

Who will purchase their 5-bedroom colonial?

a) a childless gay couple or a couple of empty nesters 
b) a moderate income family of non-profit employees who cares deeply about education
c) a high SES couple of lawyers who care deeply about education but, just like the Janney Family, cannot afford $120,000 annual tuition after taxes 
d) a single woman with no kids, because she loves living in a 5-bedroom house
e) an investor, who will rent the large home to several unrelated AU students (see, e.g., 1970 to 1998 Washington DC).

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What about none of the above: a young family who couldn't afford it at top dollar, but can do so at a 20% discount caused by an increase in supply after the new rules go into effect and Janney Family decides to sell?  I think practically speaking current paths and such would be grandfathered in, so I don't think things are as dire for the Janney Family as the picture you paint.  Also, over time, wouldn't Dunbar be seen as less of a non-viable option?  Dunbar is brand new school with facilities better than many suburban schools (maybe not in Arlington or Bethesda, but in lots of the US).

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