Reply to Fairness of Common Lottery?

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Reply to "Fairness of Common Lottery?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

According to even you (or others who wrote about gaming) it should go to the family who really wanted that school the most.  If that is the case, it should go to the family who ranked it #1, not the one with the best random lottery number overall.  There would still have to be a lottery for all those choosing the hot school as #1, but least you're guaranteed to only match people who felt strongly enough - whatever their reasons - that they gambled not getting in anywhere else to pick that school as #1.  Don't really see how lottery-ing for each school in order of ranking doesn't get you a better overall outcome.  No one has explained why that isn't better.[/quote]

Not according to me.

Why does the current system give better overall outcomes than lotterying for each school individually?

1. With individual lotteries, not getting into your #1 is a disaster. It throws you to the end of the line, you don't get to go again until everyone else has gone. Picking a school for your #1 that you don't get into is equivalent to getting the absolute worst number in the lottery. Parents have to decide whether they want to gamble on their number one pick. Some parents will gamble and win. Some will gamble and lose. Some won't gamble, and will also lose: they'll put a safe school as their number one pick, and forego a spot at their true favorite because they actually got a good lottery number. Overall, the number of losers outweighs the number of winners.

2. With individual lotteries, it is possible to have outcomes where two families can trade and both benefits. Since some families are going to hedge and put their second-favorite school first, it's possible that they end up with their second choice while a lower-ranked family gets their first choice, and that they took the first choice of that family. A swap would benefit both. No such swaps are possible under the current system.  If modifying the outcome of one system to be more like the another improves outcomes for everyone, I'd say that the second one is better.

3. The biggie: how likely you are to gamble on your number one pick is determined by what your other options are. If you have an OK IB school, or can afford to move or go private, it makes sense to shoot the moon. If your IB school is unacceptable or you can't afford to move or go private, you need to hedge. If you don't play you can't win, so disproportionately the spots at the most competitive schools are going to go to those who already have the best options. [/quote]

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