Reply to Fairness of Common Lottery?

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Reply to "Fairness of Common Lottery?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]This has been a good discussion, and it's interesting that several people want to make this bizarre (to me) distinction between "your first choice school" and "the school you think you have the best odds of getting into" and that opting for #2 is somehow an awful, horrible thing for a system to support.

But you know what?  If I decide that the most important thing for my kids (and my sanity as a parent) is to get into what I consider a very good match for my kids, even if it's not my dream school, that school BECOMES my first choice if I'm valuing the odds of getting in.  Who are you (people so concerned with "gaming the system") to decide that I am doing something bad or wrong or that the outcome will be better if I rank my #1 dream school #1, get shut out, and then have such a crappy number that I get into none of my 12 schools or only #12?  Why are you happier with that system than a system that says that at least all those accepted to the most popular schools each had to choose (because remember: you can only choose ONE school as #1!)?

The whole idea that you're "gaming" because you're including in your considerations whether you have a better shot at one school than another is both obnoxious and still not explained in a way that makes sense.  Are you also going to insist that parents not consider commute, or whether it's got good special ed services, because that is gaming the system too?  The definition of "#1 pick" is that it's the school you want to put as #1, for whatever your reasons are.  We may be overly optimistic, discussing ways we think the current system can improve,, but the conversation about parents being "strategic" about rankings is just bizarre as hell.  No one, not even a Nobel Laureate, can create an algorithm that prevents parents from "being strategic", even the current system.  Feeling that IT/MV/TR or whatever as my first pick IS strategic.[/quote]

Because when you get into a school someone else gets shut out.

If there's only one spot, should it go to the family with the better lottery number, or the one with the optimal strategy? That's the argument against gaming in a nutshell.  Keep in mind that no one will know until the lottery runs what strategy will be optimal, it depends on how the chips land. So it's just as random as lottery numbers, only not so predictable. If you end up with a good lottery number putting your #1 pick #1 is a brilliant strategy, with a poor lottery number it's a death-knell to any of your top picks.

The current system doesn't prevent people from being strategic, it just minimized the impact when they do so. Allowing rankings to affect outcomes might make people feel better because they'll feel like they have more control, but it won't improve overall outcomes -- there are only so many seats to go around -- and is likely to make them worse.[/quote]

According to even you (or others who wrote about gaming)[b] it should go to the family who really wanted that school the most.[/b]  If that is the case, it should go to the family who ranked it #1, not the one with the best random lottery number overall.  There would still have to be a lottery for all those choosing the hot school as #1, but least you're guaranteed to only match people who felt strongly enough - whatever their reasons - that they gambled not getting in anywhere else to pick that school as #1.  Don't really see how lottery-ing for each school in order of ranking doesn't get you a better overall outcome.  No one has explained why that isn't better.[/quote]

The bolded part is where you are going a little bit wrong. We've been saying that the system allows[b] families with high numbers [/b]to go to schools they want the most. There aren't anywhere near enough coveted spots for there to be enough for families who want them the most. Ranking your choices 1-12 is the way you say which ones you want the most; the rest, unfortunately, comes down to your random lottery number.[/quote]

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