Reply to Fairness of Common Lottery?

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Reply to "Fairness of Common Lottery?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]"Gaming," in this application, only means trying to anticipate how to use your picks strategically. So in the proposed "separate lottery" scenario suggested above, an applicant might really want Mundo Verde as their number 1 pick, but might be scared off by the astronomical odds of going into that huge pool. So they might put DC Billingual as #1 instead on the assumption that odds will be more in their favor. This is "gaming" the system, and it encourages people to improve their odds by not ranking their true preference if the odds are long.

The current algorithm is designed to improve the satisfaction of matched families. There aren't enough highly coveted seats to go around,[b] but let's make sure that the families who get them had at least ranked them highly.[/b][/quote]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. Under the current system, [b]how highly you ranked a choice has no bearing on whether you get in there[/b]. The only two factors that matter are what your lottery number is and whether you got into any of your higher ranked choices. You could rank a school #12 and be the only person admitted if you had a high lottery number and your one through eleven choices were already full.[/quote]

Correct, but those who have high lottery numbers got their top choices. The common lottery has eliminated the scenario where people got lucky at a hot school but couldn't make the commute or weren't actually that interested in immersion. Now the people who get good numbers get to go to the schools they really want.

(Your scenario in which someone with a great number gets matched at their #12 is possible, but not likely. If MySchool is to be believed, 86 percent of matched families matched at their 1, 2, or 3 choices.)[/quote]

But under the current system, someone with a great number who ranked a hot school #2 or #3 could easily get into that school ahead of someone who was dying to go to that same hot school and ranked it #1.  It would be an improvement if there was a way to consider the ranking of the school and draw in pools by ranking.  It would improve the very result you're saying the current system has brought about, and further eliminate someone getting a school that wasn't their #1 pick over someone who did want it #1 (all else being equal, i.e. preference).[/quote]

I doubt the person with the higher lottery number would consider it an improvement if they got shut out while someone with a lower lottery number got a spot at their #2 pick.[/quote]

First off, under what's being suggested, you're comparing apples to oranges.  If person 1 ranked popular school A as #1 and popular school B as #2, for person 2 to get in to school A, they'd have to have ranked it as #1.  It's too bad if person A gets shut out, but why would they feel bad if person 2 felt strongly enough that they wanted school B as their #1 and they got lucky?  As all have pointed out, there aren't enough spots, and when I got shut out I'd have felt way better about it if I knew everyone who did get matched either ranked the school #1 or got into a less popular school that they still ranked pretty high.

Also, it's apples compared to oranges because person 1 and person 2 weren't in the same lottery really.  Lottery for people who ranked school A #1 is a different draw than those who ranked school B #1.  So how is it really a "lower #"?  It's not even in the same draw.[/quote]

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