Reply to Federal employee, how do you choose your TSP investment?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Here's how TSP Pilot stacks up against the other advisory services -

2014 TSP Advisory Services Performance
BBB Invest.............................. 15.9% ($95/yr)

Intrepid Timer...........................12.9% ($200/yr)

Rev Shark............................... 10.0% ($199/yr)

TSP Advisor............................ 10.0%.($120/yr)

TSP Folio................................ 8.8% ($149/yr)

Coolhand .................................. 5.6% ($189/yr)

Ebbchart.................................... 4.7% (free)

TSP Pilot....................................4.4% ($150/yr)

TSP Wealth................................3.4% (free)

TSP Key.....................................2.6% ($100/yr)

TSP Max................................... 2.4% ($100/yr)

Relevant.....................................2.3%.($24/yr)

TSP Millionaire........................(-0.4%) ($120/yr)

TSP Strategy.............................. 9.8% (free)[/quote]

I think you have to put these numbers in context a couple of ways.

First you have to know what the goal and analytical framework of each is.  Some are more aggressive than others and say so (others may or may not reveal as much about their methodology and approach).  Those are more suitable for a more aggressive or younger investor.  Some are more oriented towards protecting downside (I am most familiar with TSP Pilot, which is explicit about their investing framework and the goal of steady returns with downside protection) -- those are more suitable for people with lower risk tolerance or who are closer to retirement.

You also must look at more than a one year snapshot, that's not going to help much.  I'd love to see 10-year returns for each of those services because that will sweep in how badly they got clobbered in '07-09, and how well they've recovered.

The only one I'm familiar with is TSP Pilot, which in my experience has returned ~10% annualized since 2000 (they also have an aggressive portfolio as well).  I have no connection other than as a paying subscriber.  That's fine considering other assets that are invested more aggressively and returned 15-20% last year.  If I had used some of the other services my TSP account would've been decimated in '08-09 and I'd be way behind where I am now.

One year numbers alone are a data point, but not necessarily a very useful one.[/quote]

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