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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I’ll believe it when I see it.

AI still hallucinates like crazy and needs a lot of prompt engineering and training to do anything useful.

The notion that AI can replace “the vast majority of what we do in white collar jobs” is kind of laughable.

Yes, it will replace some things.

But it is very unlikely to replace the “vast majority” of people.[/quote]

You're wrong. Google anything about this and read. This is a real thing that is happening. [/quote]

Ok, let’s take one example.

Explain to me how AI will replace lawyers.

I’m not talking about AI being incorporated into legal workflows.

I mean a world in which we have no lawyers because AI is doing all legal work.

Will an AI agent represent a client in court?

What about doctors? Professors?

Will kids enter a classroom and be taught by an AI agent? [/quote]

AI is not going to release all layers and doctors etc. but it’s going to greatly diminish the numbers of them.

Instead of 5 attorneys writing briefs you have AI write 5 briefs and then 1 attorney fact/law check it. Also while there are hallucinations now, exponential learning means AI will improve faster than we can adapt.

You will still have doctors, but they will be using AI to scour your treatment records and medical journals plus do much of your charting. Insurance companies will now expect doctors to see more patients more quickly. And this is already happening with PE getting into owning medical practices.

There are going to be fewer a fewer paths for normal people to build wealth and have professional careers.

I am a first gen college grad turned lawyer. My dad moved from blue collar to managerial blue collar work and my mom was a SAHM. I became a lawyer. I had hoped my kids will have a similar income and lifestyle as me, so I find it depressing that just 1 generation later they are now being expected to go into blue collar work again. The ownership class is going to keep us laboring for them as cheaply as they can and supplement heavily with AI unless we start legislating something soon.[/quote]

This is such a great example of how the tech guys don't understand other fields that aren't structured like tech and don't scale like tech.

Law is not predominantly brief writing, and you do not write a brief (or anything else) in a closed box. Yes, there will be changes and probably efficiencies with new tech, just as email and word processing replaced most courier services and typing pools. But you will not see significantly fewer lawyers, sorry.

And, I don't think law is special in that way. I think most industries are dissimilar to tech.[/quote]

I think it is more similar than you think. In my company, we’ve reduced headcount of lawyers because we don’t need as many. The number isn’t significant in my company (maybe reduction of 5 people right now), but multiply across companies, and parts of the company (it’s definitely not just legal where this is happening) and it will have a meaningful impact on jobs[/quote]

+1  I'm an attorney and practice in an area that should be safe.  If I were a trusts and estates attorney, I'd be very concerned.  There's zero reason to pay an attorney to draft those documents when AI can do it for you.  The days of enormous hourly rates are also going to be over because clients certainly aren't going to want to pay those fees anymore, even if they still want an attorney. [/quote]

You can do simple estate documents (adequate for most people) with a template already, and that has been true for decades: an AI gloss on a template is not changing the market. AI isn't capable of doing the more complicated planning. 
Most lawyers know that drafting is not the bulk of the work - lots of specialties use templates or reuse past documents to get started. The thinking, the reasoning by analogy, and the client interaction are most of the job. [/quote]

Agreed.  When I was an Army JAG 20 year ago, we had software that wrote wills for us.  I am sure law firms have been using similar software for a long time.  But you need to be able actually understand the rules and various instruments to put together a complicated estate plan.  The software can write the document, but it can’t do the thinking or know what to ask the client.[/quote]

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