Reply to What will happen to the economy and stock market if SCOTUS rules Trump tariffs are unconstitutional?

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Reply to "What will happen to the economy and stock market if SCOTUS rules Trump tariffs are unconstitutional?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]My prediction if tariffs are overturned:
-Interest rates go up because of deteriorating fiscal condition of the U.S. since this will blow a hole in the federal budget, higher mortgage rates
-Price of gold goes up
-Consumer prices flatline, rate of inflation falls below 2%
-Stock market rally in companies/sector reliant on imports - consumer good (Walmart, Home Depot), electronics (Apple, Samsung), automotive (US and foreign), small cap stocks
-Tariffs refunds inject money into the economy - less layoffs, more economic activity
-[/quote]

Why on EARTH would the Fed increase interest rates due to deteriorating conditions…?[/quote]

Agree this is wrong.  [/quote]

It has nothing to do with the Fed raising or lowering rates. If the tariffs are overturned and refunded, the U.S. government will need to issue a massive amount of debt in a very short period of time to cover the spending that was supposed to be funded by tariffs. The only way to garner that degree of interest in the debt auctions is for US Treasury auctions to clear at a very high interest rate. The more debt we need to issue in a short period of time, the higher the interest rate will need to be.

The Fed is not the end all, be all of interest rates. [/quote]

Why would there be a refund?  There is no world where that would happen.  It would all be going forward not looking back.  Even 9 liberals would not say he would have to refund.  [/quote]

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