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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I can't see this playing well in Northern Virginia. Most voters downstate that Romney's veneer of toughness appeals to were already voting for him, but Northern VA has the Romney voters that can be peeled away from him between now and the election.[/quote]

I was down around Culpeper last weekend and was surprised how few Romney signs I saw.[/quote]

Culpeper will go for Romney, make no doubt. It's gotten a tad more liberal due to migration from the north/inner suburbs, but there's probably some erosion of support from Republicans who gave Obama a chance in 2008 but revert back to form in 2012.

McCain won Culpeper 54-45 in 2008, I think it will end up being about similar, maybe 56-44, since many folks who move further out than Loudoun/PWC are doing so to get away from the libruls, whereas many of the newcomers to PWC and Loudoun are libertarian-leaning but not big on reality denying.

Goode might siphon off 1-2% of votes in Southside VA almost all from Romney, Johnson might get 0.5-1% of votes, many in Northern VA/suburban Richmond/Tidewater.

OTOH, the biggest enchilada will go 60-40 for Obama. Romney's going off the rails as I said before will not play well among the Obama in 08/McDonnell in 09 voters. Plus many casual voters will be back -- not as many as in 08, mind, but enough. Plus I can't see the 19-22 year old contingent being a fertile base for Romney. [/quote]

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