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Reply to "What are your political predictions for 2024?"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Trump will not have a conviction on his record. He’ll be reelected, again while losing the popular vote.[/quote] I also don't think Trump ends up convicted of anything, much less in jail. I'm not sure I agree that he wins the election, but if he does it will be as you say - winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote. A third party candidate could also be a spoiler/wild card. But Trump's a wild card too. With Biden you know what you are getting, like it or not. To date, Trump has failed in alienating his base, but you honestly never know what could come out of his mouth. Abortion is a good example. Trump instinctively knows abortion is a losing issue for the R's. He's said as much, but I'm not sure he really understands how many conservatives are true believers on this issue and how many of them won't show up for him at the ballot box if he tries to moderate on this issue. And he has to get people to show up. That's something else that I don't think polling picks up. It's one thing to tell someone on the phone that you'll vote for Trump. That's easy. But if you're not passionate, or your tired of him, or you're disgusted with the system come Election Day, do you even show up? I kind of feel like everyone but the hardcore Trumpers have Trump fatigue. I don't think Trump gets the voters that just wanted to shake up the system this time around.[/quote]
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