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Reply to "Conservatives and climate change (a poll)"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The climate is always changing and on a much longer time scale than humans have been around to impact. Educate yourself on the Milankovitch cycles - https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2948/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in-earths-climate/#:~:text=These%20cyclical%20orbital%20movements%2C%20which,and%20south%20of%20the%20equator) You heard it here first summer 2023 temperatures for most if not all of the US will be the lowest on record. [/quote] The problem with your theory is that Milankovich cycles are a series of periodicities from roughly 90,000 to 400,000 years in length. The carbon climate change problem is much, much faster than that, it began just 150 years ago, with the advent of the industrial age when we began digging and burning countless millions of tons of coal representing hundreds of millions of years worth of compressed, concentrated and accumulated fossil biomass. Many different teams of scientists have modeled the contribution and impact of Milankovich cycles along with all of the other known contributors to climate change. Milankovich cycles DO NOT contribute any meaningful change to climate over the span of the last 150 years. Instead, again and again and again, the models and data all point to anthropogenic pollutants as a major contributor.[/quote] If you start with a model that says CO2 causes lots of warming, then yes the impact of Milankovitch cycles will be small. The sensitivity of the earth's temperature to CO2 levels is not well known, and the scientists' generally agreed upon range as seen in IPCC reports hasn't changed in about 40 years, from before there were IPCC reports. 1.5C-4.5C for doubling of CO2 levels. They narrowed it a bit recently, on both ends.[/quote]
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