Reply to Massive pentagon leak re Ukraine conflict

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]1-1 casualty rate means eventually Ukraine is down to 0 while Russia has soldiers left.  Russia gets all of Ukraine.[/quote]

lol.  Whoop dee doo.  And?

Ukrainians would never accept Russian rule.  Russians will continue to be assassinated, sabotaged, and impeded at every turn.  Sure, they can try to shove everyone into crematoriums, but first they'd have to clear out their own bodies first.

But I think the Russian body counts will seriously spike soon.  From the photos posted here, it looks like Russia has deployed the reserve equipment it had in the Crimea depot, while Ukraine has been re-fitted with modern weaponry.  But as long as the Ukrainians are methodical, they should be able to pick off the Russians at the front lines 1 by 1.  Western thermals are REALLY good, and Russian troops will have difficulty dealing with Challenger tanks.  The Ukrainians know they need to provide the tanks air cover, so will be able to take out a lot more of the Russian aircraft and command & control as they panic and call in for air support.  That will be a nice big electronic signature for the Ukrainians to target.

Economically, how long would it take for Russia to get economic benefits from Ukraine?  It's not like they are willing to sink in money to rebuild.  That assumes the Russian economy will bounce back, but it's in tough shape right now.  The Russians do appear to be selling Russian oil to India and China, but at discount; so it's a slow bleed.

Militarily, Russia's ground army is decimated, so I don't know how they'd keep control.  Think the FSB can control Ukraine?  Nah.  It will spread like wildfire since the FSB will be spread way too thin than they already are.  That means they'll lose control of parts of Russia more so than what's already happening, which is why Russia needs to station peacekeeping troops in Armenia.  Even if they refill the military ranks, it would take at least 10 years before they become effective enough to take on a serious opponent.  Poland or Finland alone would be tough for them to handle, let alone NATO itself; and Russia's southern borders are already in bad shape with the conflicts there.

In the end, invading Ukraine has done nothing to help Russia.  Long term, Russia has lost, even if they believe it's a 'win' to take Ukraine.[/quote]

You’re living in a fantasy. Eastern Ukraine doesn’t care who rules them. They didn’t enjoy the Ukrainian rule and they won’t mind the Russian one as long as there is peace. Crimea never cared to begin with. A good chunk of Kharkov and Odessa doesn’t care either. Western Ukraine is a different story.

As long as there is peace and people begin to make money again, a surprising proportion of Ukrainians just do not care.[/quote]

Except the exact opposite is true as evidenced by all current polling in the country/region.  Pre-invasion, there may have been some truth to this in the east but that sentiment is now long gone.

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