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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
Trump CANNOT win a general election against a reasonably decent Democratic candidate who wages a reasonable campaign. There are simply not enough Republicans who would want to vote for him, because with all that's come out since he left office, he has even less of a base than he had against Biden in 2020. I know that base is LOUD. But it's small, and we need to keep it that way.

This doesn't mean Democrats will sail to an easy victory.

Cheney, running as an Independent, can steal votes from centrists of all parties, and it's hard to tell who she might hurt most, Trump or the Democratic nominee. Unless the GOP does an about-turn rapidly, for example, if Trump gets indicted under the Espionage Act and it looks really bad for him, Cheney will not have the support of any Republican fundraising apparatus of note. McConnell, that squelchy toad, has his finger in every money pie and he won't give any of them to Cheney unless he's very sure the tide has turned against Trump.

There is also the problem of Biden. A portion of Democrats do not want him to run. He's a trigger for Republicans, being Trump's direct 2020 rival and with the Hunter/laptop thing (still don't understand that little obsession). I do not see him increasing Democratic chances in 2024. We need an energetic, younger person, and perhaps, heretical thought, someone equally centrist, to fight off the Cheney attraction.
[b]
I'm sure all kinds of calculus is being made right now by all interested parties[/b]. We'll have to play a nice tight game to get a Democrat in the White House in 2024.[/quote]

Agree. In reading this I'm reminded of a conversation I had with an acquaintance back in 2016. Her husband works for some Koch funded think tank in DC and she said they (the Kochs) were kind of "just sitting this one out" as far as the 2016 election. Obviously, the Kochs were going to go along with what was good for them after the election, but they weren't big Trump supporters. I think Cheney's PAC will be heavily funded by them and their interests. Because they realize that the insanity that's going on in the GOP is not good for their interests long-term.

The Democrats definitely have an enthusiasm/candidate issue. I think Biden should wait as long as possible to announce he won't run again. And then that it's a fair fight to get people enthusiastic.

The one wild card that's been injected is abortion. That's definitely having an influence. I think you lose a lot of votes if you still support banning/criminalizing abortion in its entirety or with draconian restrictions. The polling on abortion indicates most Americans were comfortable with a Roe framework and not comfortable with extremes.
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