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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Many DC families have only stayed because they are underwater on their homes.  Once it rises, absent a good school, the middle class will flee DC again.[/quote]

Don't be such a silly.

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/DC-Washington/Capitol-Hill-home-value/r_121685/

People may be underwater in the greater Dumfries-Manassass metropolitan area, but most middle-class DC folks have plenty of equity in their houses..even those who bought during the bubble.[/quote]

Wrong.  Instead of cherry picking your stats, why don't you cite the chart for Washington, DC as a whole:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/DC-Washington/r_41568/

It's not just the "greater Dumfries-Manassass metropolitan area" that is underwater, but Washington, DC as well.[/quote]

You'll probably want to dig a bit further into that chart. The areas that were hard-hit by the suburban housing bubble are a) the well-heeled areas of DC where households are likely to be both wealthy, and have access to the good public schools (JKLM), or b) the ungentrified areas of DC east of the river, and in the far NE.  The middle-class parents who bought homes in places like Capitol Hill and elsewhere [b]even in the "bubble years"[/b] are unlikely to be seriously underwater. That's because most of the (relatively small decrease) in home values in DC proper have taken place in ungentrified neighborhoods where new residents with children are unlikely to have settled. Even in your cherry-picked example of Petworth, someone is unlikely to be underwater unless they bought between late 2005 and mid 2009. The strong neighborhoods like Capitol Hill have only increased in value since the peak of the peak. Pretty much anyone who bought at any time other than a six month period in 2006 has made money. And the rents have gone up sufficiently that those people could rent their houses tomorrow and cover their mortgage and maintenance.

You're fantasies of nervous "underwater" parents wishing they could leave is just wishful thinking. Which, come to think of it, is a bit sad.[/quote]

These aren't "fantasies."  We know many such parents personally.  They are underwater and wishing that they could leave for a much better school district, but are forced instead to apologize for DCPS and "boost" it on forums such as this in the hope that the system will actually improve, or at least appear to have improved enough to attract another middle class home buyer to purchase their home for more than they paid for it during the boom years.  Perhaps you are another example of this, which, come to think of it, is quite sad.

Moreover, your arguments don't refute the fact that the chart cited clearly shows that DC property values have declined.  In fact, the chart doesn't even show the full extent of the decline, since it only goes back to early 2007, whereas the peak prices were around May 2006.  The only "cherry picking" was by the PP who tried to cite Capitol Hill and certain other neighborhoods as examples of areas where prices hadn't declined as much, if at all.  My point was that for DC as a whole, the prices [b]have[/b] declined, and the chart proves that.[/quote]

Name the neighborhood. My guess is that you know people in either Columbia Heights or Petworth who bought in, what? 2006? 2007? Either that or they're in the "suburban" neighborhoods west of the Park. I feel sorry for your personal acquaintances, but they're outliers.[/quote]

What do you mean by "name the neighborhood"?  We know parents from many different parts of the city that are underwater.  Again, the facts that I have demonstrated show that they are not "outliers."  Where are your facts demonstrating that property values in DC are now higher than at the peak of the boom?[/quote]

It's not enough to show that property values "in DC" are lower than at the peak-of-the-peak. You need to show that the neighborhoods that saw high middle-class growth are down significantly, and that there are a significant percentage of homeowners who bought in the 2.5 year period where the peak-of-the-peak exceeds current prices. The number of residents who fit that bill are the one's you're talking about. And they're likely to be miniscule.[/quote]

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