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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]^ Chances  :lol: [/quote]

Every post I've seen on this board about somewhere else being a "disaster" has been regarding a state that had a very low level of cases for the last three months, but which is now seeing a trend upward.  Because they, unlike NY and other places in the NE, actually flattened the curve.  Unless we all stay inside until a vaccine is available, the curve was going to start back up again when we stopped isolating.  You folks are moving the goalposts. [/quote]

No.  Virginia was in the same basic condition as Arizona right after shelter in place but we slow-rolled and have a mask-indoors policy that most everyone is adhering to.  Don’t see us having the explosion AZ is having, so no, it was NOT a guarantee to happen.  The goalposts recommended by the epidemiologists have always been slow rollout and preventions.  AZ is the one who shorted the goalpost.[/quote]

Don't know what you mean by "same basic condition?"  [b]Virginia and AZ had about the same # of cases per capita back in early April,[/b] but then Virginia's curve was steeper than AZ's after that.  VA's then flattened, and AZ's came up, but AZ still has fewer cases per capita total than VA (VA: 6430 per million; AZ 5061 per million).  Interestingly, VA and AZ have about the same 7-day average for new hospitalizations per capita (@7 per million per day) right now, and VA has many more total hospitalized cases per capita (952/million vs. 515/million).  If you look at the chart for total confirmed cases per capita for all states, you see that, no matter the shape of the curve, they are all converging in on one area of the chart.  Which is exactly what "flattening the curve" was supposed to achieve.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg[/quote]

I think you need to say "reported cases."  I think there is no way they had the same number of active cases.  I've lived in Arizona a long time and have also lived in Northern Virginia.  Arizona has relatively little travel to and from China, Italy or Spain.  (Some travel to China from the universities.)  Virginia has a lot of travel to those locations, comparatively speaking.  I think it's basically undisputed that it was circulating in the DMV, including NoVa, In March and April, but the testing had not ramped up sufficiently to record the cases.  As testing ramped up, Virginia saw a sharp incline in reported cases.  Arizona just did not have community spread until recently.  (They shut down schools relatively early -- before community spread started...but then reopened everything just as community spread was starting, so they didn't really time the wave well.)  The goal of flattening the curve is to keep cases below the medical capacity.  Arizona is at or exceeding the medical capacity so by definition has failed to sufficiently flatten the curve.[/quote]

AZ mom here and ITA. There were extremely few cases when we shut down (and I think there TRULY were few- they weren’t missing a ton of hidden cases). Unfortunately we reopened right as community spread began...not good. Our peak was always predicted to be in June...maybe after SIP pushing things back it will now be July. Hard to say. Its almost as if we shut down too soon, honestly. The fact is, people will only tolerate SIP for a certain length of time (especially in AZ) and we wasted our two months of it sitting home when there were no cases. And now are reopen when cases are exploding. I understand the public health perspective (shut down early and stay shut down as long as it takes) but that isn’t realistic in the US (especially red states) as things stand right now. We wasted our “window” IMHO. [/quote]A big partnof it is also behavior upon repoening.  Is everyone wearing a mask in public?  Are people restricting their interactions to small groups that are outside?  In VA, our numbers have continued to decrease and I attribute that to people continuing to social distance, even after "reopening."  If AZ isn't social distancing, then you should expect cases to sky rocket just like they were elsewhere pre-shutdown.  It's less about when AZ shutdown and more about current conduct to keep the R value low.[/quote]

ITTA and Arizonans on the whole are NOT doing well with that. Some areas better than others.

However- the same is true throughout the Midwest (I have lots of family in WI and MN- and from what I’m hearing the compliance is no better) and they are not seeing these spikes at all. Maybe they will? And WI and MN have Dem Governors to rein things in if and when needed. I wonder about some of the other midwestern states that are not compliant and have R govs...will they also get out of hand, or is it something else in AZ (beyond the horrible compliance levels)? I think at least half of the states are as bad as AZ in terms of masking and social distancing so I’ll be curious to see if the same thing happens there or not..[/quote]

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