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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]^ Chances  :lol: [/quote]

Every post I've seen on this board about somewhere else being a "disaster" has been regarding a state that had a very low level of cases for the last three months, but which is now seeing a trend upward.  Because they, unlike NY and other places in the NE, actually flattened the curve.  Unless we all stay inside until a vaccine is available, the curve was going to start back up again when we stopped isolating.  You folks are moving the goalposts. [/quote]

No.  Virginia was in the same basic condition as Arizona right after shelter in place but we slow-rolled and have a mask-indoors policy that most everyone is adhering to.  Don’t see us having the explosion AZ is having, so no, it was NOT a guarantee to happen.  The goalposts recommended by the epidemiologists have always been slow rollout and preventions.  AZ is the one who shorted the goalpost.[/quote]

Don't know what you mean by "same basic condition?"  Virginia and AZ had about the same # of cases per capita back in early April, but then Virginia's curve was steeper than AZ's after that.  VA's then flattened, and AZ's came up, but AZ still has fewer cases per capita total than VA (VA: 6430 per million; AZ 5061 per million).  Interestingly, VA and AZ have about the same 7-day average for new hospitalizations per capita (@7 per million per day) right now, and VA has many more total hospitalized cases per capita (952/million vs. 515/million).  If you look at the chart for total confirmed cases per capita for all states, you see that, no matter the shape of the curve, they are all converging in on one area of the chart.  Which is exactly what "flattening the curve" was supposed to achieve.

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR31GHXuyL1QxPp5xKusUXXQg2e0EEpwm9_oqEadVpooHw8CusCDSmUeBPg[/quote]

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