Reply to My daughter's science teacher doesn't believe in climate change.

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]As someone who does modeling and simulation for a living, I will tell you this:

Modeling and simulation is not science.

[b]"Climate change" is based on modeling and simulation.[/b]

Thus, climate change is not science.[/quote]

Not true.  The science of climate change is based on measurement, from several centuries of data, including much more intensive measurements post 1970.  We know from measurement how much and in what ways the climate has changed (a lot and escalating very quickly).  This is  basic science.  So it's false to say climate change is not science: it's already been measured and verified.

We use modeling and simulation to predict future changes and assess the reliability of past simulations.  Most past models/simulations have been too conservative when we compare them to actually measured climate changes.  Any specific predicted model is just that: a prediction, but when the measures match it becomes verified.  So specific predicted models of the impact of climate change are not "settled,"  but documented changes are settled and their to-date coherence with the most predominate models (but only worse) is also established.

[/quote]

Yes, any semblance of realistic measurement of climate measures has been over the last 50 years, in an incredibly complex system full of varying cycles.  That is not enough to prove anything.  [b]And if you think that past climate models were too conservative, you have been getting your information from TV news, not from scientific research[/b].[/quote]

No, I know it's complex and nuanced.  Some of the models (specifically those that focused on warming) predicted more warming than measurement (up until at least 2008) confirmed.  But the models that focused more on intensity and also those that make more localized predictions for specific areas consistently erred on the side of being too conservative.  For the work I do, which relies on estimations of potential intensity of events and their implications on design in specific areas, we have to keep increasing estimates because the models were too conservative.[/quote]

Modeling chaotic systems is extremely difficult and not something I would be doing in excel.

As an aside, climate scientists are much better at collecting data and measurements than developing accurate models. [/quote]

They are also really good at "massaging the data"...[/quote]

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