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Reply to "Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable "
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[quote=Anonymous]A quick update. "Russia's depleted labour force is causing acute labour shortages and threatening economic growth, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Thursday, as Moscow pumps fiscal and physical resources into the military. Russia's military production focus as it prosecutes what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine is pulling funds away from other sectors of the economy, while worker shortages and record low unemployment add to inflationary pressure through higher wages that has seen interest rates surge to 15%. "We now find ourselves in a situation where the economy has practically fully used the available resources, this applies both to workers and production capacities," Nabiullina told lawmakers in the State Duma. "Unemployment is 3% and in some regions it is even lower. This means there are practically no workers left in the economy, the situation with personnel is really very acute," Nabiullina said. "For further growth of the Russian economy, increased labour productivity is needed."" ""If we loosen our grip, we won't achieve anything," Nabiullina said. "Inflation will still have to be reduced but from a higher level."" "Nabiullina said, but annual inflation will only start decreasing [b]next spring[/b]. The central bank's forecasts suggest that [b]reaching the 4% target by end-2024 will be a tough ask.[/b]" https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-depleted-workforce-threatening-economic-growth-says-central-bank-2023-11-09/ Oh. What a surprise. Gosh. (How was my acting? Pretty good, huh?) Think about this. If the Russian's are stuck until Spring like this, it's not a short-term issue. When Nabiullina says the situation may not be resolved until beyond 2024, that's a systemic issue - not a transient one. But I don't think this is a temporary issue. The dead Russian soldiers in Ukraine won't be returning to fill labor positions. The wounded may not be able to hold jobs anymore. Although it seems to be a small number compared to a 144 M population; 1. that population is spread across 6.602 million square miles of land, 2. is getting smaller over time, and 3. were family-making / wage earning age of only 48 million males aged 15 to 64 and Putin just raised the military personnel cap to 1.5 million abled-bodied, family-rearing men out of 48 million (3%). Soldiers don't bring money into the economy - they drain money from it. There is no "work" produced by Russian soldiers to heat homes or feed families or bring in external income from abroad. Another perspective to think about is that if interest rates hover at 15%, it's nearly impossible to obtain (for example) a bank loan to start a new business or buy a house or purchase a car. You'd have to earn a profit of 15% just to pay off the interest, let alone pay down the original balance. A labor shortage means if a worker doesn't want to work, tough cookies for the company - your productivity will drop and make it less likely you'll pay back your loan. And even if Russia ended the war tomorrow, brought back every troop - it will still be months or longer before they're all back to work again. This explains why Russia is dumpster diving the overseas junkyards. "Putin signed a decree on Wednesday allowing foreign investors with funds frozen in Russia to use them to buy blocked assets of Russians abroad." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-signs-decree-allowing-foreigners-swap-frozen-funds-blocked-russian-assets-2023-11-08/ "a delegation of Russian officials who visited Cairo asked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to return more than a hundred engines from Russian helicopters that Moscow needed for its war against Ukraine." "Russia is trying to get back some of the weapons it exported to countries such as Pakistan, Egypt, Belarus and Brazil. Sisi has agreed, and deliveries of about 150 engines are likely to begin next month, sources say." https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-asks-other-countries-return-191743121.html But that's not all that's happening. Solovyov, the main voice of the War in Ukraine, is on the defensive. I think now he's realizing he's on the receiving end of the propaganda gun. His mannerisms are changing. I think he's looking scared nowadays. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Swr2Pq7jbUg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OE6dwYjIBng Brazenly taking little nips is how the Russian pirahna pack works. Even the Iron Beaver, his good friend at R-T, is taking shots. Although she says it's the West responsible for inciting Islamists to protest Jewish Russians landing in Dagestan; check out her 'compassion' for returning Jewish Russians. "It horrified all of us. Thank God, no one died, so we can joke about it. [b]Here is the best joke, in my opinion: the bus full of Jews left and went to Avdiivka*[/b]. Go there! And here is what I think national unity looks like." (watch the video) [2:22 / 2:49] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hHIZrXLJKo * = "Avdiivka is effectively surrounded on three sides" “The city now presents a harrowing sight, it has been leveled to the ground,” https://news.yahoo.com/avdiivka-surrounded-three-sides-russians-124400966.html "Russian losses near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast have included almost 7,000 soldiers killed or wounded, 100 tanks, and 250 other armored vehicles in the past three weeks" https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-loses-7-000-soldiers-350-armored-vehicles-at-avdiivka/ So much for Russian "humor"?[/quote]
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