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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school. [/quote]

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review?  Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?  [/quote]

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas. [/quote]
If you honestly believe there will be fewer people in Fairfax County in 10-20 years you are beyond hope of reason.[/quote]

The population trend is for fewer numbers of children. No, the population hasn’t peaked yet - but the number of children has. The highest birth rate was before the recession in 2007ish and it’s been all downhill from there with some additional peaks and valleys along the way, but nothing as high as the peak birth years. I don’t know why Fairfax county in particular would buck this trend.[/quote]
Birth rates are going back up starting in 2022.  We don't have to reach the 2007 peak to still be increasing in numbers.[/quote]

Birth rates are almost to 2016 levels, which is much lower than the pre recession peak 2007-2009 birth rates of our current juniors and seniors.

[b]The number of FCPS students will decrease dramatically once the current high school students, the very last of the post 9-11 Baby Boom graduates.[/b][/quote]
Temporarily, and then after the dip following the peak works its way through the numbers will start going up again.  The decrease is just a reversion to the mean rate of increase.  We ran hot for a bit so the numbers got inflated.  It's not like the student population is about to start going down permanently.[/quote]

No, look at the data.

It will go up from 2021-2025 births, but it will not match the post 9-11 Baby Boom
[/quote]
Again, growth doesn't have to match the post 9-11 baby boom rate to still be growth.  After the numbers temporarily drop when that one bump of larger class sizes pass through we will still have growth again, just not at the peak rate from post 9-11.[/quote]

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