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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]You may say I took the bait, but I looked at the rankings data for local clubs 8th grade seasons from 25s-28s.

If you take out the rankings anomaly caused by BLC's historically-strong 2027 team (which had a number of players who now play for Baltimore clubs), and historically weak 2028 team, the rest of the DC-area teams are about on par with the '25, '26, '27 teams in average ranking.

Stars (#38) and Pride (#14) are consistent with historical track records.  Next Level's actually better (at #67).  If we want to count Renegades' successor, 3D Maryland, who has their highest ranked club yet with the 2028s (#36), that further balances the scales.

The big drop-offs are the local Maryland (MOCO) teams, BLC (#201 down from #7 for the 2027s) and MC Elite (#177), which are ranked much lower than historical averages.  This thread has talked at length about how top players that may have traditionally played in MOCO are now playing with Baltimore clubs at the 2028 level, and whether any might consider coming back and trying out for Capital.

So the data does not support the conclusion that the local area 2028s are not as strong as prior years.  It does appear, however, that MOCO talent may indeed have moved North for club play.

Proof will be mid season 2024-25 when the Capital '28s have built a track record.[/quote]

2028 is an off year for talent across the board, unfortunately. It’s too bad — every now and again there’s a drop.

The best of BLC 2027 went to Capital (about ten players). BLC 2029 is a top 20 team - no sign of any players moving to Balto. They would have done so by now if they felt they needed / wanted to. It doesn’t make sense for them to move since they’re on a Capital track. When you check the Capital 2024 and 2025 commits and compare them with Hero’s, Capital has the edge in sending girls to better schools and programs. [/quote]

Fairly weak argument to respond to a substantive post with a declarative statement and no supporting data.  If you want to back your statement, great, if not I will remain unpersuaded that there is some dramatic change--your clever condescension notwithstanding.
[/quote]

Stats that show the local talent at the 2028 level is “off”:

- Prior to HS, at 2026, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of [b]#33[/b]. The math (rounded): 
    - BLC 8th grade = #77; BLC 7th grade = #85 (77+85 / 2 = #81 average) **6th grade stats are unavailable
    - Pride 8th grade = #9; 7th grade = #7 (9 + 7 / 2 = #8 average)
    - Stars 8th grade = #7;  7th grade = #14 (7 + 14 / 2 = #11 average)
    - 81 + 8 + 11 / 3 = 33
- Prior to HS, at 2027, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of [b]#24[/b]. The math (rounded): 
    - BLC 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #7; 6th grade = #4 (7 + 7 + 4 / 3 = #6 average)
    - Pride 8th grade = #23; 7th grade = #14; 6th grade = #10 (23 + 14 + 10 / 3 = #16 average) 
    - Stars 8th grade = #42; 7th grade = #64; 6th grade = #43 (42 + 64 + 43 / 3 = #50 average)  
    - 6 + 16 + 50 / 3 = 24
- [b]Prior to HS, at 2028, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #72[/b]. The math (rounded):
    - BLC 8th grade = #201; 7th grade = #157; BLC 6th grade = #118 (201+157+118 / 3 = #159 average
    - Pride 8th grade = #14; 7th grade = #19; 6th grade = #17 (14 + 19 + 17 / 3 = #17 average
    - Stars 8th grade = #38; 7th grade = #45; 6th grade = #36 (38 + 45 + 36 / 3 = #40 average
    - 159 + 17 + 40 / 3 = 72  
- At 2029, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) average a national ranking of [b]#19[/b]. The math (rounded):
    - BLC 7th grade = #20; 6th grade = #11 (20 + 11 / 2 = #16 average) ** 5th grade stats are unavailable
    - Pride 7th grade = #23;  6th grade = #15 (23 + 15 / 2 = #19 average)
    - Stars 7th grade = #26; 6th grade = #20 (26 + 20 / 2 = #23 average)
    - 16 + 19 + 23 / 3 = 19
[/quote]

Bro...  That's pretty extensive analysis.  Shows Pride is on track as usual, among other things.  Are you the same poster, or do we have two willing to wade through the historical for us?

One issue, if we know 2028 local players who were at BLC went to Hero's, and who were at Stars and Pride went to M&D, are those 6-10 girls, if they were back on Stars or MOCO teams enough to have brought the local area clubs 2028s back in line, or close to historical averages?

Also, I would offer that the true assessment will be whether the 2028s can match Capital's trajectory for the 2025s-27s.  IF so, perhaps the rankings analysis above missed some intangibles, or girls playing in Baltimore returned, or there was a coaching factor.  [/quote]

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