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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/
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I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge. [/quote]  More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll.  The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins.  In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.[/quote]

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn. [/quote]Flipping is plausible.  D+16 is not.[/quote]

You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it. [/quote]

The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.[/quote]

The assumption that women aren’t going to come out in numbers and break hard against him is cope. He loses tomorrow because of them. [/quote]

I think tomorrow is going to be a rough day for you.  [/quote]

If you’re still thinking that Trump wins, you should probably enjoy this last night of hope and cope. [/quote]

Keep telling yourself that outlier Iowa poll changes everything!!! lol.[/quote]

It's not the pole that changed everything.[/quote]

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