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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I wonder if they are making space at Fairfax to avoid ticking off Fairfax City. I'm wondering if the plan is to send the ATT redevlopment homes to Johnson/Fairfax. Johnson you would send down Rosehaven to Arrowhead, left at the Oakmont REc light and down Jermantown to KJ. THat small neighborhood already goes to Providence/KJ/Fairfax it was proposed to move but I think they backed off it. It's also barely further to Fairfax than Oakton and closer to Fairfax than the neighborhoods being moved out were. Big issue is the ES no room at Providence, but talk to Karl Frisch about that since he got the Blake Lane School killed that a bond was voted on for back in 2010.

[b]I think they are punting lots to the next cycle to see how some major redevelopments play out, and also if enrollment continues to decline and is it concentrated in particular areas.  [/b]Also putting AAP on all middle schools is an issue, not sure why AAP even goes to middle school when there are honors and Advanced math options and languages.  Whether to keep Elementary AAP centers versus just all local AAP is another big monkey wrench but if they got rid of ES AAP centers maybe then could fix middle school start times. [/quote]

Definitely think this is part of it, I think they were caught off guard by the federal and contractor workforce cuts at the beginning of this administration leading to job losses. They’re also in denial about the natural demographic changes. Peak birth rate was in 2007 and those kids are largely in college now, some are seniors in HS. Interestingly the enrollment has remained steady even with the lower birth rates, Covid siphoning off some students to private, and increased homeschooling, mostly because the number of kids in pre-K (whether income based or special needs) has increased. [/quote]

Peak birth rate is class of 2026, which contains kids born in both 2007 and 2008, the two top birth years.

Current seniors class of 2026 are the top of the cliff, based on FCPS own stats. Class of 2025 and 2027 are both smaller than class of 2026.

Enrollment drops gradually for the next 2-3 years after class of 2026 graduates, then sharply after the current freshmen graduate.

FCPS also lost thousands of students this summer, due to current events

The district is shrinking.[/quote]

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