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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]If Rs do take the House, their majority is going to be 10 or less, and it will be on the backs of reps who won in NY, CA and a handful of other blue states by margins of 1 or 2%.  It will be very interesting to see how those reps try to differentiate themselves from the other 200 R reps who will be bringing the crazy.[/quote]

If Republicans win the House is will be by a 1-3 vote margin and they may not even be able to elect a Speaker. No way they all support McCarthy after this. Scalise is probably calling right now to build support to challenge him. If they don’t get the majority, they are almost certain to dump McCarthy. [/quote]

That would be wild.  Wonder how it works if Rs split their votes for speaker and Ds vote as a block.  [/quote]

The Republican leadership battle would be fought out in the Republican caucus, not on the House floor, but I think Scalise would beat McCarthy if he challenged him. If Republicans get to 218 to 220, I don’t see them making McCarthy Speaker. All it would take is a rump group saying they won’t support McCarthy. Remember, a few Democrats threatened to oppose Pelosi last time but backed down after assurances, but also because there was no feasible alternative. [/quote]

Why would that rump group oppose McCarthy but support Scalise?  They seem pretty similar to me, with Scalise being the more extreme.[/quote]

The rump group would be hard asses who know that McCarthy is ineffective and unimpressive and Pelosi would continue to eat his lunch. Nobody has any confidence or trust in McCarthy. [/quote]

I see.  Like a freedom caucus rump.  I'm wondering if there is another rump of "red dogs" who just narrowly won in blue states.  They may want to try to get concessions from McCarthy that he's not going to do nutty stuff like try to impeach Biden or try to use the debt ceiling as leverage.[/quote]

Speaker is an impossible job with a small Republican majority because they have too many Members who would never vote for a compromise bill that could get 60 votes in the Senate and that Biden would sign, while other Republicans want to legislate and bargain to pass pork and patronage bills for their interest groups. These guys can’t pass a budget or regular appropriations or authorization bills. Pelosi and Biden know that McCarthy or any other Republican Speaker can’t deliver 218 votes for anything and will need Democratic votes for anything to pass. Pelosi knows how to play that hand. [/quote]

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