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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]What is this stupid argument. Hill schools lose 25-50% of 5th grade to charters etc every year. It’s not “confirmation bias.” [/quote]

No one disagrees that Hill schools lose kids in 5th. The question is whether that is trending up or down. Trying to figure out what will happen next year by using what you "know" this year if you think that is what is happening because you "know" no one could stay because "DCPS is intentionally hurting UMC white IB folks" is where confirmation bias comes in.

You don't know how many kids are staying or going as against prior years and you need to look at actual data to see trendlines. We know there are more kids going to SH from feeders than there used to be and that there are more IB kids in 5th at Hill ES than there were 5 years ago (and for sure 10 years ago). Those changes happen a few kids at a time over a number of years. You can't see those shifts in a single year (one year does not a trend make) and as much as you may "know" what every kid in 4th grade or 5th grade is doing, you just don't.   [/quote]

Sure there’s some increase, but every 4th grade family tries the lottery. Even the most self-righteous moms end up trying it. [/quote]

+1, and I'd also argue that it's actually hard to assess trends either way at the moment because of Covid. It's thrown things up the air. People who were never really considering private wound up discovering during Covid that they can scrounge the money up for it (and saw that privates in DC actually opened in the 2020-21 school year). People considering MS at their DCPS IB but figured they'd move or go private for HS moved up their timelines in some cases. I think Covid made some people more apt to stay put (less change during a tumultuous time for a kid at a critical juncture in school) and made others more likely to lottery into a charter if they could, because of frustration with how their school handled Covid.

MS is a tough time for behavior and social issues, even at the best possible school. Covid has exacerbated that. I don't think you can assume that trends will continue to move in the same direction because so many parents shifted focus and priorities during Covid.

And while prior trends moved in favor of more families staying at Hill elementaries for 5th, and more trying their IB MS, it's not like these trends were overwhelming. We're talking about a very small trickle in that direction. Compare that to the shift we saw at L-T towards more IB families overall. Now THAT was a trend, that pushed L-T out of Title 1 status really fast.

I am skeptical of anyone who thinks they know with any certainty how this is all going to shake out in a few years. I know people who told me with absolutely certaining 5 years ago that SH would be over 50% IB kids by now. Well, it's not. And Eastern is still considered a non-option for most Hill families. So when you talk trends, you need to talk all of them, not just the ones that support your hypothesis.[/quote]

My lord, the Men Girls are all out in full force this morning. You just "+1" to agree with a post that expressed with absolute certainty that they "know" what's happening this year and in the future, and you followed it up with a thoughtful post about how trends aren't one year in the making, acknowledging trends in pre-covid times are the opposite of what the person you "agreed" with said. And you concluded with what I think is a fair statement that no one knows what trends will or won't continue as covid abates.

So other than wanting to back Muffy so you can tell her how much you love her and her hair at the next book club meeting, tell me how you actually agree with her post? And how you disagree with my posts arguing the people who claim to "know" simply do not?[/quote]

Different poster but I was just asked to join a book club on the Hill and am looking forward to meeting Muffy. Not sure if her hair is nice but I’ll check. [/quote]

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