Reply to Hogan running for Senate

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]He will not win. [/quote]
It’s going to be hilarious to see the Moco partisans have conniption fits when there’s Senator Trone representing Maryland.

In fact, the reason they are all supporting Alsobrooks is a bit strategic because they know she’s going to lose to Trone and that Trone will lose to Hogan. So they plan to blame the loss on Trone “buying” the primary despite the fact that obviously Alsobrooks would lose in the general even worse.

Maryland is absolutely synonymous with craven politicians. [/quote]

Polls show both Alsobrooks and Trone ahead of Hogan in a head to head.[/quote]

Interesting. I have only seen polls with Hogan maintaining a solid lead. But I do suspect the polls will tighten after the primary and that either D has a good chance. Hogan is popular and also has a good chance, but I think it’s a very tall order for that many crossover votes in a presidential election.

Maryland, interestingly enough, is the only state where Biden has been consistently above water in popularity.  Maryland voters - which, like it or not, are highly concentrated between I-495, I-95, and I-270, LOVE Biden for what he is: an establishment Democrat. 
Hogan’s popularity vs. Maryland’s partisan leaning is fairly evenly matched. I would still say slight edge to the Democrats because the informed voter base is not going to send an R to the Senate. My guess will be D+2 in the end. [/quote]
In 2018, Hogan won reelection 55-45. In 2020, Biden won Maryland 65-35.

Lots of voters are more than comfortable voting for both Hogan and Biden without flinching. [/quote]

FWIW I’m one of those voters.  Governor is low risk, which I understood.  The United States Senate is completely different.  It’s a team game and the stakes are much much higher.  There’s no chance I would for Hogan as senator.  I assume other Democrats feel similarly but I guess we’ll find out on Election Day.[/quote]
I’m also one of the voters and will be voting Hogan. Ever since Murkowski retired, Maryland has not had Senators that have been out to aggressively serve the state of Maryland. You can see what a difference engaged Senators make for a state when you see Kaine and Warner going to the mat every day for Virginia.

If we want Maryland to be a success we need to vote for people committed to making Maryland successful. Hogan has been that person and will continue to have to be that person representing us in the Senate. You cannot say the same at all for Alsobrooks or Trone. [/quote]

So we shouldn’t worry about the Trump SC justice Hogan will confirm who will serve for the next half century?[/quote]
It’s pretty clear at this point that you are very worried about it and it is your number one issue. Shocking though it may be, not everyone shares your mindset no matter how many times you repeat it. [/quote]

I think many people have learned a hard lesson over the past few years that nothing a senator does is more important than confirming Supreme Court justices.[/quote]
I hate to inform you but the horse has already left the stables on that one.[/quote]So people should just give up because there are never going to be any vacancies ever again? On any level of the federal judiciary?[/quote]
 Democrats have no plan or strategy except to continue scaremongering. But the court is already 6-3.[b] Hogan did not do that and Hogan will not be the reason it would go to 7-2. [/b][/quote]

Has he promised to not vote for Trump nominees if elected? [/quote]
This is not a litmus test for me. He’s a Republican, I don’t expect him to act like a Democrat. Are you under the mistaken impression the moderates that support Hogan think he’s going to be in lock step with Democrats?[/quote]

I think lots of moderates don't understand how we got to the Supreme Court we got today. I blame Democrats for lots of that -- I don't think it's enough to say that the Supreme Court is terrible. You need to explain that the Republican majority in the Senate helped get Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Gorsuch on the court, resulting in a 6-3 court, and the only hope for reversing this is a Democratic controlled Senate.

So people might say, "I'm a moderate, and I like Hogan because he's moderate too." And if Democrats allow that line of thinking, without drawing the connection to the Supreme Court, Hogan will win.[/quote]
Here’s the thing though, the SC has now become such a political body that the justices’ retirement decisions will be informed by the political climate. I also think given what happened when Scalia and RBG passed away prior to retirement, the justices will be more cognizant of that. If there is a Trump victory in November I would expect Thomas and/or Alito to think about retiring early in that term, but if Biden wins they will obviously stay and the conservative majority hinges not so much on the makeup of the Senate but on their continued health. If Sotomayor really is ill and Biden wins, I would similarly expect her to consider retirement early in that term. [b]Where I think we need more politicians like Hogan is that we cannot have SC vacancies languishing unfilled when the Senate is controlled by a different party than the president, there is give and take and moderation required in those circumstances.[/b] [/quote]

If Hogan wins and Republicans control the senate, no Biden nominee will ever get a vote.  Even if it means the Supreme Court has only 8 justices for 4 years.  And it wouldn’t matter whether it was a liberal or a conservative justice being replaced.  The standard now is that you have to have both the presidency AND a senate majority to get a SC Justice confirmed.  Hogan’s presence in the senate will not change this rule.[/quote]
I don’t know if that is true. [b]There were 3 Republicans that voted in favor of Judge Brown Jackson.[/b] We’ve never had vacancies in the SC languish for 4 years before. [/quote]

That was only because the vote was a forgone conclusion.  No Republican would ever provide the deciding vote for a Biden nominee.  And no Republican senate majority leader will allow a vote on a Biden nominee, no matter how much people complain about how unfair it is.[/quote]

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