Reply to How did Herndon/Westfield HS go from top to bottom?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Then I sell and get a less expensive house in one of those lovely tree-lined streets in Herndon (hopefully near the rec center)

While my house may have lost value, it’s still relatively high because it’s in Great Falls.

I bank the difference and send my child to Herndon or pay for private school with the savings if I just really insist my child won’t be a Hornet.

The person who bought my house knows that the school zone has changed, and they saved some cash because of it.[/quote]

This is flawed logic.  The second a new redistricting map starts circulating, even before it's official, houses moved from Langley to Herndon lose 25% of their value.  Instantly.  Don't believe me?  Look at the difference in home prices along Fairfax County Parkway that are zoned for Forestville vs. Armstrong - consistently 20-25% less in Armstrong .  Here are two actual examples that sold recently:

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Herndon/12104-Courtney-Ct-20170/home/9121088 - zoned for Amrstrong - sold for $800k = $188 per square foot
https://www.redfin.com/VA/Herndon/12111-Snow-Shoe-Ct-20170/home/9077314 - zoned for Forestville - sold for $915k =- $287 per square foot

Forestville sells for 53% more than Armstrong.  Yeah, the Forestville house has one more b edroom and a slightly lager lot, but still.  53% more.  These homes are 1,850 feet apart.  That's the difference between a 9/10 and a 2/10 school district.

If you own one of those houses and you're lucky, you're under 75% loan-to-value on your mortgage and not underwater.  But you would have to have put down a big down payment and paid your mortgage for many years for that to be the case.  If not, you're underwater.  Can't sell your house and make a profit at all, which means no downpayment even for that "less expensive" house down in Herndon (which probably got a little more expensive because Herndon might now be a 4 instead of a 2.

So you're stuck.  Cant' sell, can't move, and certainly can't afford private school because you stretched to be able to put your kid into a great school.

And people wonder why Great Falls parents fight this socioeconomic boundary nonsense.[/quote]

You are correct that this analysis assumes selling while the selling is good— have you seen what homes in Holly Knoll are going for these days?

Those buying in will get a great deal and many will promptly turn around and send their kids to private school.[/quote]

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