Reply to How clever was Trump (strategically)? Or did he just get lucky?

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[quote=Anonymous]It's interesting to see some of the comments on here. I don't  think they were paying any attention to the Republicans during the primary.

Trump didn't win the Republican base. The base, if we define it as the conservative right/Christian right, voted for Cruz. What Trump did was to bring many nominal Republicans or independents to the Republican primaries and they were the ones who gave him his winning margins. He definitely broadened the "base" and that's why there was a huge turnout in the Republican primaries this year. Look at the Washington primary, Trump is guaranteed to be the nominee but 400,000 people still came out to vote for him.

Interesting poll below. It's just one poll, but it does illustrate what I'm reading from the polls and that's Trump is building a coalition that has yet to be fully defined but constitutes of a different range of supporters than one normally finds in a Republican coalition, at least in the last few elections. It's very unpredictable to see how this will ultimately play out and trying to make comparisons to previous elections will be misleading.

http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/05/23/abc-poll-trump-surge-due-massive-36-millennial-swing/

Some people are reacting to the Trump upsurge by pointing to Obama's polls in May 2008, but I remember that election well and it was a case of a fresh new face gaining support as time went along (sounds similar to Trump versus Clinton, no?), and of course, there was a major economic collapse in the fall of 2008 that damaged the Republican brand badly while helping Obama.

We're in a very weird year, politically, and trying to rely on old conventions is not going to help us understand how this election is taking form and shape. [/quote]

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