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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I think there's truth to two of the PPs - in the old system, one bad draw didn't knock you out of the game (that absolutely happened this time around with the unified lottery. My Kindergartener had numbers in the hundreds for each of her schools) [b]so you had better odds [/b]taking individual chances at each school. BUT there really has been an explosion of people looking for spots so it's obvious that a greater number of people looking for a roughly similar number of spots (the opening of new schools isn't pacing growth) is going to cause headaches. 
I'm not thrilled with where we landed but we'll see how it goes.[/quote]

No, you didn't. It's painful how little DCUMers understand about statistics.[/quote]

It's painful how little YOU understand.

two systems - 1, you apply everywhere and you take your chances, you play 10-15 individual lotteries.  You have an equal chance of getting a good number (or a poor one) 10-15 times. (But you can hold on to multiple places).
2, you apply to a max of 12 schools and whatever number draw you get dictates how you are placed at each of those 12 schools.  If you have a good number you have a good chance of getting in to one of your top choices, if you have a middling number you may be shut out of all of them (depending on your choices) except your in bound school.  If you have a poor number, you may not even be offered a place at your inbound school.  If you have a poor number you are shut out of everything.

Further, while there are limited spots at HRCSs there are many other schools that are good especially for PS and PK.  With the new system parents seemed less likely to take a scattershot approach and apply to schools they hadn't thought much of before, which previously often ended up being schools they got into and ended up being happy with.  Suggesting that there aren't enough spots is disengenious.  There aren't enough spots in the 5-10 "top" choice schools among DCUM readers, but overall there are plenty of spots at "good enough" schools.  In fact many of them STILL have open spots right now.  [/quote]

Thank you for this. I'm the PP who apparently knows painfully little about statistics. But we applied to six schools before the common lottery and our wait list numbers went from #6 to a few in the #20s-40s, all the way into the hundreds. Same child last year apparently had a terrible lottery pull and was well into the hundreds for ALL of our choices. This is not brain surgery and I'm surprised that people are throwing statistical slurs around when it's super basic. 
[/quote]

I'm not sure exactly what your point is, but surely you know that your personal experience does not equal statistics?

Nobody disagrees that in the common lottery the early pulls do a lot better. But look at the bigger picture. Did you get into a school you love under the old system? It sounds like no, if you played the lottery again. A number 6 waitlist means NOTHING if it's not the school you want to be at. And there are not enough places at the schools that people love. The vast majority of the people who had options at more than one school under the old system [b]were still playing the lottery again because they weren't happy with the choices available to them.[/b][/quote]

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