Reply to Northwest current article on school boundaries

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Setting aside the diversity discussion for a moment...Purely from a numbers-crunching perspective (16:05) would limiting Deal to Janney, Murch and Layfayette solve the overcrowding there? 
16:05 "I will say this though - and it will not be popular with friends: If geographic logic entered the conversation, the only schools that should feed to Deal are Janney, Murch and Layfayette. "[/quote]

You must be new here, we don't let facts cloud our opinions on DCUM.

Once again:
Here is the latest available information for the schools that feed Deal. The columns are current enrollment, reported in-boundary percentage, and number of in-boundary students based on that percentage: 
Eaton	 457	32%	146.24 
Bancroft	 463	49%	226.87 
Lafayette	 707	90%	636.3 
Murch	 556	56%	311.36 
Janney	 558	87%	485.46 
Shepherd	 331	28%	92.68 
Hearst	 257	19%	48.83

Total	 3329	59%	1947.74

The current rated capacity of Deal is 910, or 303 per grade, not counting the expansion that is underway. Current enrollment is 1014 or 338 per grade.  Enrollment of the feeder schools is 3329, or 475 per grade.

I'll throw out two scenarios, the truth is somewhere between them:
Scenario 1: Let's assume that school population isn't growing, that the reason class size is smaller in elementary than in middle school is that only 71% of in-boundary elementary school kids go on to Deal. To get Deal to capacity you need to cut 35 kids per grade, or 11.5% of kids. Cutting 11.5% out of the feeder school means taking out 385 kids.

Scenario 2: Let's assume school population is growing, that today's 338 per grade will grow to 475 per grade when all the current elementary school kids reach middle school. To get Deal to capacity you'd need to cut 172 kids per grade, or 36%, or 1205 kids out of the feeder schools.

So the answer is somewhere between 385 and 1205 kids.  Look at that list and decide where you would cut.  To answer the original question, Janney, Murch and Lafayette come to about 1800, a cut of over 1500. That would be far more than necessary unless you wanted to turn Deal into a de facto city-wide school.[/quote]

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