Reply to 3/9 and 3/10 public hearings

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Lots of people from Magruder there testifying.  Also a bunch from SSIMS.[/quote]

I wonder why MCPS did not point to the additional out-of-bounds immersion students to explain that SSIMS will actually still be around average size for MCPS middle schools?  It's a weird omission....[/quote]

The concerns expressed about RM's numbers offer an analogy.  The current attendance, overcapacity, reflects a relatively larger magnet population than the expected differential (small, with nearly as many leaving for other magnets as coming in) from home-catchment populations projected (themselves declining with the overall school-aged population trend) in the out year of the boundary study.  Yet some RM stakeholders (and some of those from Wootton grasping at straws) can't wrap their heads around that.

On the other hand, as another poster noted, there might be only French Immersion (if that) continuing at SSIMS, and of the 100-120 across three grades, there, many would come from the proposed home catchment.  They might get a bump of 30-50 students, at most, in that case.[/quote]

But that &quot;expected differential&quot; is based on assumptions (MCPS 's word, not mine). They still have not surveyed families and just made up numbers that are not reflective of past trends. You know what happens when you assume... [/quote]

Sure, but every model incorporates assumptions, and those stakeholders railing against the recommendation, instead of taking that model, and the resulting difference it explains, into account and then discussing where the assumptions might be wrong, are arguing numbers that don't take the difference between current attendance and model-based projected attendance into account at all.[/quote]

That's fair.  I'm more concerned that the regional model numbers need more research.  Per MCPS, RM currently has 34 students leaving for regional/criterion referenced programs.  Based on their recent slides, they are estimating 494 students will leave for other programs.  RM is keeping the IB program.  What makes them think they will suddenly have 14  times more students leaving for programs at other schools?  The regional model is proposing high school to high school busing only and many RM communities are not walkable to RM.  MCPS has provided zero justification for these estimates except &quot;*predicted model that students will be evenly distributed from each of region schools (assumes that students will enroll in programs they applied for outside of school and that there will be an increase in application, and enrollment due to proximity and bustransportation services w/in regions).&quot;  If their prediction is wrong, and number of students opting to leave RM remains in line with the &lt;2% that leave now, but RMIB continues to be popular, RM will indeed remain overcapacity. [/quote]

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