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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]There are lots of ways to tap 401ks and IRAs early without penalty.

In any event, $4 million in investments at 48 is fantastic. You don't need to invest anymore. At 58, you'll conservatively be able to draw over 300k a year without touching the principal. Even now, you could draw 160k a year without touching principal. [/quote]

That's assuming we don't have a pull back, which will happen at some point. [/quote]

You mean a down market? No, this assumes down markets. The 4% rule was derived from nearly 100 years of data, which includes lots of down markets. And I project a 7% annual return over the next decades, which is conservative and draws from nearly 100 years of data.

My estimates are conservative and account for downturns. [/quote]

I understand that. But we could have a downturn soon. And that could leave OP open to greater sequence of return risks. We are staying the course right now to secure a big enough portfolio that can withstand a significant correction and still be able to pay the % we need to live a good life in retirement. [/quote]

Do whatever you want, but the data support that OP can withstand a significant correction and still retire comfortably at this age. [/quote]

You are making assumptions on OP's behalf. DW's income could probably cover their basic expenses. Their 529s could probably cover their kids' in-state tuition. I think it's irresponsible to blanket statement say he can afford it without knowing all his specific details.

Bengen's and the Trinity study's 4% rule was born out of research covering 30 years, not 40-45 years. OP should really go to a place like Bogleheads.org and present his expenses, portfolio and get a review. Also use some modeling calculators. Then decide if he is comfortable with the information that he receives on a deeper level.[/quote]

I'm a Boglehead. The 4% rule has been replicated many times and tested in different scenarios. The failure rate increases only very slightly for longer retirements. OP could draw 3.5%, have close to a zero percent failure rate, and still be fine. [/quote]

I stand by the fact that it is unclear if he can retire or not--and at 48 in this environment taking time off can equate to having to retire. And, OP is saying "probably" can live on DW's income, "probably" have Kid's in-state tuition paid for. He doesn't know enough about his financial situation to know for sure. He says nothing about this expenses. 4M could be plenty for someone at 48. But not everyone is going to be fine at 4M. What is his mortgage? Has he considered LTC? I mean, there are so many things to consider. I guess I get irritated by those of you who give blanket statements of sure, 4M is plenty, without knowing much about a person's in-depth situation.[/quote]
OP has gained 20 lbs and developed chronic disease. That's not cheap either. This is not a sustainable situation.[/quote]

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