Reply to Did you guys just see the latest job report? The forecast was so off

Forum Index » Jobs and Careers

Reply to "Did you guys just see the latest job report? The forecast was so off "

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The data is not fake. I am a Democrat so sure I could jump on it to fit a narrative, but that will disingenuous.

There is raw data available for this. The methodology has not changed.

What people forget is that under all previous administration BLS has always been the punching bag as far as agency experiencing budget cut.

The BLS is under staffed. And the methodology they use require lots of human resources. And response rates have been decreasing. This explain the wild revisions we have been seeing lately.

Read the report closely.

Let me ask you a question. If you think this is fa, do you also think that the revisions that essentially wiped out all jobs created for 2025 were also fake? There were from the same report.[/quote]

This. The people here are crackpot conspiracy theorists. Monthly data gets revised after its first estimate. November and December were both revised down in this report. Annual data gets revised regularly too. The downward revision for the past year is a level change to re-anchor the series based on complete data, not a flow change like the monthly data. Basically, there were 158,377,000 people employed in March 2025 instead of the previous reported 159,275,000. The monthly revisions (reflecting actual developments in the labor market) were much less.

There is more data than just the BLS surveys. The Fed is not making decisions off of one data point.

Finally, don’t hang on to one month’s data. Data is noisy. [/quote]There is another independent count of private sector job creation every month from a payroll company called ADP. Their count for January is 22k. The government count is 172k (private sector only). That's almost 8x bigger. For context both the ADP and gov average for 2025 is about 30k.

As for the revisions - no I don't believe them. The revisions serve two political purposes.

First it raises job creation in January 2026 by pushing it down in previous months. It's a shell game.

Second, the unrevised counts showed that job creation didn't fall off a cliff until 6 months after Trump took office. The revisions push job losses closer to Biden’s term.[/quote]

There are a lot of individual months where ADP and BLS diverge. When job growth was better (pre-Trump) there were months with discrepancies in the hundreds of thousands, especially with the first BLS estimate of the month.

There is no political gain in revising down past months’ jobs figures. If you believe the numbers are cooked, you don’t need to revise down past months to revise up this month. There is no political gain to revising down 11 of the past 12 months (during all of which Trump has been president). Again, if the numbers are cooked you simply would not do this.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics