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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]It looks like the state legislature wants to copy Maryland’s failed policies in Virginia. Here’s a summary of some of the disastrous laws proposed this year.

HB378: will implement a state level net investment income tax and drive residents out of Virginia. 
https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB378
HB537: Will threaten public safety by allowing violent felons that are arrested for another felony to be released without a bond. 
https://lis.virginia.gov/bill-details/20261/HB357
[/quote]
Does Maryland actually have both these laws/policies?[/quote]
Maryland does have overly permissive/forgiving policies for violent criminals. They don’t have a state level net investment income tax but they have a local income tax (in addition to regular state income tax) that has a similar rate to this proposed tax. [/quote]

Eg. The Maryland Second Look Act passed 2025 allows some violent convicted murderers to request a request a reduction in their sentence after 20 years in prison. [/quote]
How is this overly permissive? It’s just a request/review and the felon has to serve 20 years first.[/quote]

Because this law is based on an emotional narrative about “second chances” and rehabilitation. It is not based on actual data that supports the idea and it creates a significant threat to public safety. The recidivism rate for violent criminals is is atrocious. Around 79% of violent criminals are rearrested within 9 years of their release. Even if you a just looking at repeat violent crimes a staggering 43% of these people are arrested again for a violent crime within 9 years. Furthermore, a significant percentage of violent crime are never solved, so the actual percentage of these people is committing violent crimes within 9 years is much higher. The repeat violent crime rate is definitely above 50% after adjusting for crimes that were commited by this population but go unsolved.  It makes zero sense to give convicted violent criminals(especially convicted murders) second chances when the majority of them will victimize someone else with a violent crime within a decade of being released. 
https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/18upr9yfup0514.pdf
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/06/us/murder-solve-rate-louisville.html[/quote]

You don’t understand the bill and the data you provided does not support your position.

If you look at people who go to jail before the age of 25, the rehab rehabilitation rate is much higher.

The data you provided is for all ages.

Also, the bill is just for people under the age of 25.[/quote]
I do understand the bill and the people that support this bill are either statistically illiterate or they think that increasing the number of crime victims from releasing criminals is an acceptable sacrifice to make in order to protect the rights of convicted criminals.

That lower recidivism rate you mentioned is a selection effect, it’s not casually related to the age of arrest or the efficacy of rehabilitation. Advanced age is negatively correlated with the odds of recidivism for multiple reasons that have almost nothing to do with the factors you mentioned. Here are the problems with your argument about why this bill is a good idea. 
1) Older people are less likely to be capable of committing crimes because they are more likely to have age related health issues, it has very little to do with criminal proclivities or rehabilitation.
2) On average, people with a criminal history have a higher mortality rate, and the mortality risk is even higher among people with the worst criminal histories. The people released at later ages are the surviving criminals that did not die, so their average recidivism rate is lower due to survivorship bias. 
3)The age of initiation for criminal activity is a very strong predictor of recidivism. People who commit crimes at younger ages, especially violent crimes are more likely to reoffend. 
4) If you actually look at the data from this research, the recidivism rate is alarmingly high. On average, there were 4.8 arrests per prisoner released over the 9 year period for which data was collected. These numbers are even worse after you adjust for the fact that some of the most violent/criminal people are quickly given another sentence and thrown in jail/prison again, so they are unable to accrue additional arrests during the data collection period. The data also excludes the almost 3% of people that died during the study period which artificially lowers the recidivism rate. Rehabilitation is basically not a thing and the data does not support it. 
5) Criminal behavior has a very strong genetic component, likely more than 50% genetic. Not politically correct to say but it is reality. The primary cause of criminal behavior is genetic not environmental. So rehabilitation has very limited efficacy. The most effective way by far to prevent crime is by keeping people with criminal histories in prison so they are unable to commit more crime. 
Lastly, it makes zero sense to prioritize the well-being and rights of convicted criminals over the safety of the law-abiding majority of the population that does not have antisocial criminal tendencies. [/quote]

Source for number 5? I believe this to be true but I’d like to see the studies.

Thanks[/quote]

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