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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][youtube]https://youtu.be/_xwocCtzC0s?si=5s89o3AxmBVZi-Ww[/youtube]

This is an oil industry expect talking about Venezuela oil. It's a full cycle investment and oil will cost $80-85 a barrel. It's a proven area but you have to start from scratch - drill new wells, install all new infrastructure, pay high per acre lease because it is proven not exploration ($55,000 per acre vs $5,000). Also there is nothing stopping Venezuela from nationalizing everything in a few years.

Basically oil will have to be $100 a barrel before companies are interested. Meanwhile Canada heavy oil is 1/2 cycle and cost $27 a barrel. [/quote]

Javier blas is one of the biggest experts on oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-01-09/venezuela-oil-offers-quick-riches-for-a-few-us-companies

Secondly, you are assuming firms will have to fully fund the capex on their own or make the decision like it’s wholly under their control.

The calculus changes if [b]trump directs treasury to give low/no interest loans to us oil majors or takes equity stakes in them[/b]. [/quote]

Javier talks about this in the video. If that happens the US oil producers not in Venezuela will turn on Trump and fund democrats. They are getting hammered in Permian Basin and laying a lot of the workforce. Now Trump is going to subsidize their competitors? No that is a huge no go for 99% of the oil companies. It’s a lot more complicated vs what Trump and media are reporting.[/quote]

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