Reply to Lottery lists: What's best now, or look ahead?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Euclid middle school should be successful if people at the feeders are willing to give it a try.[/quote]

Do you think it is still needed? All signs seem to point to the DC population shrinking. And Francis seems to have the capacity right now for Ross, Thompson, Seaton, Garrion, Cleveland. [/quote]

I do think it's needed, because the Cardozo building is pretty full. We'll see next time the Master Facilities Plan is published, but I think Wells middle is pretty full too. Not that Wells is super close by, but all these things are interconnected. Stuart-Hobson is getting more popular too. Some charters may fail this year and next (SSMA, Rocketship), and that will mean DCPS picks up some of the population. None of the soon-to-fails are super close to the Shaw area, but these things have an impact on the whole system. [/quote]

The 2024 MFP came out in September 2025. The total enrollment projection is to shrink but not by that much. The real shrinkage comes from birth rates, which obviously won't affect middle school enrollment for a while. There's a table of facility utilization-- while it's true that many schools are massively under-utilized, there are others above 100% such as Bancroft, Barnard, and Brightwood. Importantly, CHEC is at 98.7% utilization, and that's one of the middle schools nearest to Cardozo/Euclid. Coolidge is at 127%, wow. Garrison 99.7%, Wells 115%, Oyster-Adams 117%. So yes, I do think that the new school is needed. Just because enrollment is pretty high at the schools nearest the Euclid building, even as it's declining system-wide.

https://dme.dc.gov/publication/2024-master-facilities-plan-supplement[/quote]

But didn't everything change in January 2025? We have twice as many houses on the market now as we did a year ago. The shrunk Fed is not coming back, and the associated contracted jobs. [/quote]

Well, only a portion of those people have children in public school. I think people tend to overestimate the impact. [/quote]

From Brookings:

[b]Laid off approximately 300,000 federal workers.[/b] The White House moved swiftly to terminate jobs, prompting media organizations, firms, and nonprofits to track employment losses, including by agency. In total, there will be 300,000 fewer federal workers on payroll nationwide by the end of calendar year 2025, according to a Trump administration official, with most of the reductions taking place by September 30 (the date by which most deferred resignations go into effect).

[b]Terminated over 13,000 federal contracts and over 15,000 federal grants[/b][b]. According to a White House tracker, these contract and grant cuts have yielded $59 billion and $44 billion in savings, respectively. While several investigative pieces have challenged these figures, it is nonetheless hard to ignore the impact of these cuts on public safety organizations, humanitarian relief groups, and health researchers, to name a few.[/quote]

From here: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/early-warning-signs-for-the-dc-regions-economy-amid-federal-downsizing/

There is no way the population of DC doesn't drop.[/quote]

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