Reply to Metro vs Paramount (vs other top clubs)

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
What about the 6 players who left? Did they move to first teams somewhere? Maybe they prefer to be starters on first teams? Were there players who played down at 14 and decided to move up to 16? That's pretty common. Did any of them move out of the area? Did any find the commute too long? Did any want to focus more on academics? Maybe they don't like the coaches... There are many, many possible reasons why they left. If some of the starters left for various reasons, the team has to replace them with others.[/quote]
Not the PP poster although I love all the statistics. Really wish we could require clubs to publish this type of info to help us with club selection.

If the data is right, 70+ players out of ~130 left Paramount last year.  Is there any club in CHRVA that has that level of departures?  Are there any in the top 10 teams?

In statistical terms I'd be willing to bet Paramount is 3+ standard deviations away from the turnover rates at other top clubs in the region. Why do you think that is?  Every club faces exactly the same challenges that cause player departures that you list so why is Paramount the outlier here?[/quote]

Conversely, who are the clubs in the top 10 that consistently have a super high retention rate? Metro is better but who is the best or better? Replacing nearly half your club players seems pretty crazy. Though fits with anecdotes you hear over and over.  [/quote]
Running the data for all the clubs will take a bit of time, but is possible. If I can I'll pull it. In the meantime, here's Metro's stats.  For equivalent comparison to Paramount, Metro North is treated like the 2s team for Metro.  Treating Metro North as a 2s team to Metro travel does have some issues though, since geographically the teams aren't co-located (~40+ mile drive apart). I've included them to give a relative comparison to both Paramount and any other clubs data is presented for.

For this analysis, all 2025 Metro Travel & North teams from U14-18 were included. Metro North's 13s was included. Metro Travels 13s was not, because they did not have a 12s Travel team in 2024. There were 3 players from 2024 12-2s that moved up to 2025 13-1s. Those 3 were included in the retained #s because historically Metro North has placed multiple players onto Metro Travel.

For brevity, Metro Travel = 1s, Metro North = 2s in the data.

- Overall:
  - 145 Players played for either 1s or 2s teams. 
  - 101 players returned from the previous year
  - 44 new players were added
  - Retention Rate: 70%
  - Turnover Rate: 30%
  - Metro's turnover was -24% below Paramount's, or roughly half of their turnover.

By Team:
  - 18-1: 14 returning, 1 new
  - 18-2: 7 returning, 5 new
  - 17-1: 14 returning, 1 new
  - 17-2: 8 returning, 5 new
  - 16-1: 13 returning, 1 new
  - 16-2: 10 returning, 2 new
  - 15-1: 10 returning, 4 new
  - 15-2: 4 returning, 9 new
  - 14-1: 7 returning, 6 new
  - 14-2: 6 returning, 6 new
  - 13-2: 5 returning, 7 new (but could be +3 returning if they hadn't moved from 12-2 to 13-1)

Metro Travel #s (includes any 2025 player who played for Travel or North in 2024), U14-U18:
   - 58 returning, 13 new
   - Retention rate: 82%
   - Turnover rate: 18%

Metro North #s (includes any 2025 player who played for Travel or North in 2024), U14-U18
   - 35 returning, 27 new
   - Retention Rate: 56%
   - Turnover Rate: 44%
   - Note: 13-2 was excluded from this calculator because the 3 players who moved to 13-1 create a data matching problem

Comments:
   - Only 2 teams (15-2, 13-2) add more new players than they kept.
   - 13-2 is a special case due to the lack of a 12-1s team, but shown above for completeness of Metro North's retention rate.[/quote]
Thank you to this poster for providing us turnover info for 4 teams: Metro Travel, Metro North, Paramount 1 and 2.

[b]Metro Travel[/b]	new	returning	total	turnover rate
18-1	1	14	15	7%
17-1	1	14	15	7%
16-1	1	13	14	7%
15-1	4	10	14	29%
14-1	6	7	13	46%
total	13	58	71	18%

The turnover rate decreased significantly in later years and reached and stayed at 7%. Either Metro Travel has found all the best players after 15, or Metro Travel is very loyal to their players.

[b]Metro North[/b]	new	returning	total	turnover rate
18-2	5	7	12	42%
17-2	5	8	13	38%
16-2	2	10	12	17%
15-2	9	4	13	69%
14-2	6	6	12	50%
total	27	35	62	44%

You can probably say that Metro North is a typical team in the region. Its turnover rate is 44%.

I calculated the turnover rates for VAJRS teams, a top 10 club in the region:

[b]VAJRS[/b]	new	returning	total	turnover rate
17-1	7	5	12	58%
16-1	4	11	15	27%
15-1	7	6	13	54%
14-1	8	4	12	67%
total	26	26	52	50%

The turnover rate is 50%, greater than that of Metro North (44%).

[b]Paramount 1[/b]	new	returning	total	turnover rate
17-1	3	11	14	21%
16-1	6	7	13	46%
15-1	7	7	14	50%
14-1	9	6	15	60%
13-1	7	4	11	64%
total	32	35	67	48%

Paramount first teams' turnover rate is 48%, slightly greater than Metro North (44%), and slightly lower than VAJRS (50%).

[b]Paramount 2[/b]	new	returning	total	turnover rate
16-2	8	5	13	62%
15-2	6	8	14	43%
14-2	9	5	14	64%
13-2	8	5	13	62%
total	31	23	54	57%

Paramount second teams have a turnover rate of 57%, which is 13% higher than Metro North (44%) and 7% higher than VAJRS (50%). However, Paramount’s 2s teams were all formed only a year or two ago, and newly formed teams typically have higher turnover rates.

Yes, Paramount’s turnover rates are high, but not much higher than VAJRS and Metro North. For a team of 15, a 10% turnover means 1.5 players, and a 20% turnover means 3 players. You could say that a Paramount team recruits 2–3 more players per year than other teams, but that’s not an extraordinary number.

Furthermore, I consider Metro Travel a “developed” club and Paramount a “developing” club. For a developed country like the USA, a GDP growth of 4% is considered high, whereas for a developing country like India, 4% is considered low. For a car that is behind to catch up to a car in front, it has to drive faster.

On the other hand, there are more opportunities at a developing club/country. There’s no point in trying out for Metro Travel after age 15, because they typically add only one new player each year. More new players join Paramount’s 1s teams.[/quote]
The data does suggest that some level of turnover is normal, but I do think there are likely some differing reasons depending on the clubs that should be considered. I think it’s pretty widely accepted that Paramount is the second strongest club in CHRVA meaning they are taking players looking to play D1 in college and that want to play on an open level team. That being the case, for the types of players that they are designed to attract (particularly for their 1s teams) I would expect more players to stick with them year over year than say a VAJRs or lower ranked club. If a player looking to play in college leaves VAJRs, Columbia, or MOCO for Paramount or Metro Travel, the assumption is they are looking to play for a higher level team. But if a player leaves a Paramount 1s team for a team other than Metro Travel, I feel like that may indicate something isn’t great at Paramount. A lack of playing time could be one understandable reason that a player might leave a Paramount 1s team for a “weaker” club, but from reading some of the discussion in this thread it seems like a lot of starters are leaving too. Not sure if the developing club versus established club reasoning holds up. [/quote]

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