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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Over the past six months, the dollar has declined more than 10% compared with a basket of currencies from the U.S.’ major trading partners — something it has not done since 1973.

Trump is purposely burning us to the ground and it will be horrifying. [/quote]

Trump is a real estate guy from Queens in mafia-ridden 1980s New York. That's all he intuitively understands. Tariffs are like tribute from his perspective. And the decline of the dollar works for him. It forces people into assets - like real estate.

Everything is grossly inflated right now, especially stocks, but also residential and commercial real estate. But the TACO trade can go forever. I was on top of things in 2008. Sold everything, including real estate and stocks at the end of 2007, and did well. But for the life of me, I cannot figure out what the catalyst is going to be for the invariable crash and correction at this moment in time. Everything is humming along. I am not seeing it with dark money. Not seeing it in real estate. Not seeing it in bad loans. Everything seems... fine. Though everything is inflated. But I can't find a catalyst that brings the deluge. Whereas in 2007 it was pretty clear what was going to happen.  [/quote]

Banks are going to get into the business of handling crypto in the next few months. There will likely be at some point a failure of a stablecoin or major crypto platform. Banks that are holding crypto will see a sudden devaluation of those assets, which will cause deposit runs. Banks that have allowed customers to do leveraged lending with crypto collateral will suddenly find themselves holding collateral that has lost much value and the borrower won’t be able to repay.

In short, a combination of deposit runs and credit losses will trigger another banking crisis. [/quote]

I think crypto is nuts and it's all a speculative trade. But I don't think the Fed allows the major banks to get over-leveraged in this. It's not like CDOs in 2008, which were clearly a systemic risk. I'm not seeing what might compel a crash. Tariffs and trade are a slow burn. Economies will adjust. And banks are in pretty good shape today. I am inclined toward the dark side - but I am not able to see a trigger for a crash or a major correction.  [/quote]

^
Unless Trump fires Powell and installs his sycophants at the Fed. Then it's immediate collapse and financial Armageddon.  [/quote]

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