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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I'm not sure how one can make a blanket statement about an area by cherry-picking three of the dingiest-looking houses they could find.[/quote]

It's pretty clear that some of you have never been through this before. The average sales price is indicative of a trend, but this is how a real estate recession works. The average or mean sales price is just indicative of a trend, but what really happens is that the "dingy not perfect" houses are impacted much more than "perfect" houses.  When the market is hot, people get desperate and overpay for houses with unfixable flaws (usually location). Perfect houses are always in demand, and may only hold their value, or have a slight decrease. The houses with flaws will sit and drop in price more. [/quote]
DP
What any given house would have gone for a year ago is a totally subjective judgment.

It is a fact that median prices are up YoY https://rocket.com/homes/market-reports/md/montgomery-county[/quote]

You realize “median prices” are based on what’s sold, not what’s sitting on the market unsold and is dependent on housing mix? Both inventory and median prices being up supports the theory that only the premium houses are selling. [/quote]

Where do you see an upward trend in inventory? The link above shows a clear downward trend in inventory.

I'm not trying to say everything is perfect. I think there probably will be major impacts, but they are not here yet.[/quote]

Inventory is up. So far, there is still demand, but what happens when supply increases is that the best houses absorb the demand and the less perfect houses sit. Agree that the full impact of the layoffs hadn’t been felt yet, so what happens then?

The point is that houses aren’t a commodity — there is no single market clearing price, even for houses in the same neighborhood. How your house will be affected depends on a bunch of factors that tend to less important/get overlooked when inventory is tight.

https://www.redfin.com/news/washington-dc-housing-inventory-government-layoffs/#:~:text=Four%20metros%20saw%20a%20larger,on%20a%20more%20granular%20level.

Active listings of homes for sale in Washington, D.C.  jumped 25.1% year over year to the highest level since 2022 during the four weeks ending April 27—the largest gain on record.

By comparison, active listings nationwide rose 14.2%—the smallest increase since March 2024. 
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