Reply to Middle school lottery chances based on SY24-25 outcomes

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I filtered this list down to schools with 20 or more offers (matches+offers by October) and less than 100% offered by October.

Percent offered = (matches+offers by October)/(matches+waitlist on results day)

For 5th grade: 
Inspired Teaching - 78% offered
BASIS - 64% offered
Latin Cooper - 27% offered
Latin 2nd St - 22% offered

For 6th grade: 
Wells - 98% offered
DC Prep Edgewood - 98% offered
Capitol Hill Montessori - 96% offered
Friendship Blow-Pierce - 96% offered
EL Haynes - 94% offered 
Sojourner Truth - 92% offered
Jefferson - 89% offered 
Eliot-Hine - 82% offered
KIPP Key - 55% offered 
DCI Chinese - 51% offered
Capital City - 42% offered
Stuart-Hobson - 40% offered 
Inspired Teaching - 37% offered
John-Francis - 27% offered 
Hardy - 26% offered
DCI French - 20% offered[/quote]

What about DCI spanish?  Definately lower then French.  Maybe single percentages?[/quote]

DCI Spanish barely got all the feeder kids in this year[/quote]

All the feeder kids got in this year.

They said that they ran the numbers and all feeder kids will have spots at DCI for the next few years even with feeder school expansions.   Maybe not all the feeder spanish kids will get the spanish track maybe in the future and might be in other language track which further decreases those numbers for non-feeders.

Thus DCI is the most competitive seat for non-feeders kids EOTP.[/quote]

If they did this analysis they should share it with families.  I know a family that opted for the Latin guarantee over the non-guarantee preference from a feeder even though they slightly preferred DCI.

We are in a feeder and never heard that they would offer a Spanish kid a French track slot.[/quote]

We are at a feeder and the admin at DCI said that that they couldn’t guarantee seats for the current 4th grade class. Not sure what PP is talking about. But the admin did confirm that available lottery seats would go to feeder kids first. Although I don’t know if my kid who has studied Spanish since PreK would love to start fresh with Chinese.  [/quote]

They are not going to say they will guarantee spots.  Things can happen and come out. They have to leave the door open.

But the trending pattern is that there should be enough seats for the next few years.  This was what was said in the open house presentation Q and A by the principal.[/quote]

There are over 100 more kids in the rising 5th grade class. If I were at a Spanish language charter like MV I would definitely have a plan B. [/quote]

NP - my kids aren’t at a DCI feeder so I have no horse in this race. But your plan B options if you don’t get into DCI are basically non-existent. If you can afford private, or you live in bounds for a middle school you can tolerate, okay. But if you’re inbounds for a crappy middle school and can’t afford private (which is most people!) you’re stuck. The only way you don’t get into DCI is a crappy number, so you’re not getting in anywhere.

Seems much riskier than lotterying hard for 5th and going to Thompson if nothing else pans out (as suggested up-thread). [/quote]

But then doesn't that person give up their DCI option and is stuck with Francis. I personally would prefer DCI, Francis has a screens issue as well, and not as much differentiation.[/quote]

If you don't get a DCI spot from a feeder, that means you had a terrible lottery number and are unlikely to get a spot at another school. If you're willing to enroll in your IB school, move, or apply to privates, then it makes sense to stay at your feeder and lottery for DCI. But if not, that approach is more of a risk. For more risk averse people in that situation, it could make more sense to lottery into Thomson for a guaranteed middle school spot at John-Francis than to stick around at a feeder for an unguaranteed DCI spot, even if they think DCI is the better school.

And the issue of high school feed adds another layer of complexity to the calculation ...[/quote]

Above is an absolutely not true.  Kids in DCI feeders are in a separate lottery for DCI with their feeder school and with preference for all seats.   They are not in the general lottery for DCI.

You can absolutely have a great general lottery number irregardless of you get a seat at DCI or not.  BTW, yoir chances at DCIin a feeder is very high and you would be stupor to give that up.

The poorly performing middle schools have lots of seats and majority have no waitlist or clear them.

[/quote]

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