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Reply to "SP500 and RTO brain drain"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The largest companies are losing talent and money. Seems like a good shorting opportunity for those companies enforcing strictest RTO mandates. RTO is also anti-woman. All this data is public. Abstract: [quote][i]By tracking over 3 million tech and finance workers' employment histories reported on LinkedIn, we analyze the effect of S&P 500 firms' return-to-office (RTO) mandates on employee turnover and hiring. We find that these firms experience abnormally high employee turnover following RTO mandates. The increase in turnover rates is more pronounced for female employees, more senior employees, and more skilled employees. Further, it takes significantly longer time for these firms to fill their job vacancies after the mandates. Their hire rates also significantly decrease. These results are consistent with firms losing their best talent and female employees and facing greater difficulties with talent attraction after RTO mandates. Our study highlights brain drain as a significant cost of RTO mandates even for the largest firms in the world.[/i][/quote] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5031481[/quote] I read some of this paper and it’s very interesting. A challenge may be that they looked at RTO mandates through June 2023 (forget when they started). If the majority of those mandates were in 2021 or 2022 when schools were still closing and COVID was pretty bad that may have messed with the data. 2022 was also the period known as the great resignation when many people were changing jobs, so I don’t know if that’s accounted for. Dealmaking was also down in 2022-2023 and that impacted financial services from a monetary standpoint - silent layoffs happened by, for example, making bonuses lower to get people out the door. Did those people leave because the were frustrated with comp or did they leave because of RTO? It was not a good time to be at Goldman Sachs. And some real layoffs also happened during that period because most companies paused layoffs and negative reviews during the pandemic (not sure if that was factored in). I think they said something like many roles weren’t hired for, which would indicate bloat. And positions that were harder to fill roles may have been open longer because they were looking for a very specific skill set and people also knew that the company had just gone through layoffs and bonuses were down (again, don’t think that was controlled for). I also didn’t love some of the citations about women being less attached to the workforce from 1988 and 1992. Kernel of truth, but with pseudo-sciencey assertions like that find more recent citations to back up the claims. In 2025 the world looks different from 2022 and 2023. People have much more realistic expectations about the hybrid and remote options available to them now than they did in 2022 and 2023. [/quote]
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