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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]4% withdrawal rate is pushing it. US stock valuations are currently high and bond yields are projected to be lower (who knows?). 3% is a much safer bet. Maybe an argument could be made for slightly higher withdrawal rates like 3.5% if you increase international stocks and decreasing bond allocation, but again nobody knows.[/quote]

Here is the thing, your last comment is spot on.  No one knows.  It is just a rule of thumb.  4% should not be too conservative.  But when you retire matters.  And your portfolio matters.  International stocks should be there but they are crap and always will be -- same for bonds.  Your portfolio to use the 4% rule should be pretty stock heavy.  And you have to with stand the down markets -- so what does that mean?  You may have to cut spending in down markets.  Take 3% or even 2.5%.  No trips; little fun.  If you can limit your withdrawals in down times you can recover in the good times.  Also a good trick that really does wonders for the portfolio is to reduce spending 2% a year for five years at a point when you think you will be doing less.  That is a 10% decrease after it is all kicked in which will help keep your portfolio active.  The trick is when you start this -- for some people 75 for other 80 to 85.  If you account for this now I think you will see there is a good chance for your portfolio to make it.  [/quote]

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