Reply to Are chances to get into DCI without feeder near zero?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Depends.  The long-term data is that there will be less demand for MS seats in the next 5-10 years. This means that if you have a kid in kindergarten or younger, you have a good chance of getting into any MS you want, including DCI. Some MS are likely to consolidate as well. [/quote]

LOL!  This might be true in DCPS middle schools but not in the charter middle schools that are in high demand EOTP.  The seats are getting more competitive as more middle class families stay in the city thru elementary and then need a decent middle school.

I wound agree that all the poorly performing under-enrolled DCPS middle and high schools should consolidate and stop wasting taxpayers money after they already wasted billions on renovations which did nothing to attract more families.[/quote]

LOL! The data does not support your "strong and wrong" opinion, actually. https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/enrollment-decline/. MS seats will be easier to get in 5-10 years based on current projections - and that is everywhere in the city. This is actually good news for parents of young ES students and should create less churn. 
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I just don't think it's that accurate to do population and in-migration stuff so many years out. And this is just some random policy paper, not actually the work of the school district.

Please, tell us specifically which middle schools you believe will consolidate.[/quote]

Yikes - OSSE and the DCPCSB have both cited this report, as did the boundary commission - irrespective of whether you personally think "it's accurate to do population and in-migration stuff so many years out" - that is kind of what DC and states do all over the country....[/quote]

So which schools will consolidate?[/quote]

I think there are a crop of charter schools without feeder paths for MS/HS or with only a MS and no HS path, and as the city is like to create an exception (like they did for DCI) or another mechanism so that they can pair up and create dual programs or programs within a program. There will be a big push to feed DCPS ES Spanish programs into a targeted Spanish MS/HS (this has also been discussed during the boundary study). But yes, the enrollment projections are sound and good news for families with young kids who are committed to staying in the system. [/quote]

They already do have a programmatic feeder pattern-- https://dcps.dc.gov/page/sy23-24-school-feeder-patterns

This study was published in July 2022 and showed actual enrollment of 86,991 students for SY 21-22 (first page of Executive Summary doc). The audited enrollment numbers for SY 22-23, released by OSSE in April 2023, showed 91,288 (PK3-12, not counting Adult and Ungraded categories). So already, the projections in this study are significantly below actual enrollment. Also, where it says the overall population of DC declined by 20,043 from 2020 to 2021, the 2022 Vintage Census charter shows a decline of just over 2,000. Then it goes back up again, so the figure for 2022 is nearly 1,000 more people than 2020. And DC's fertility rate increased to 48.7. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/dc/DC1.htm

So you can see that several key elements of this analysis are altered by an additional year of data. Try doing a little research before you make assertions. If you follow the footnotes in the study, you can update a lot of the data.

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Not sure what your agenda, might just be petty boosterism, who knows? In any case, you do young families a great disservice with your henny-pennying, but clearly you are getting off on it for some agenda. Gross. [/quote]

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