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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Supply is still far out stripped by demand. It doesn’t help that current owners bought or refinanced at the lowest interest rates in American history. That makes people hold on to properties instead of trading up or liquidating.

I refinanced $750K at 2.75% in 2021. We might leave DC, but I ain’t ever selling this property at that rate. It’s basically free money and I can find a tenant to pay off this mortgage. If we want to buy another home, we will just wait until we have another downpayment and use leverage.

I really don’t see things going, except in maybe 2nd home markets and Florida (where prices basically doubled).

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Lol love replies like these when the reality is that prices HAVE ALREADY fallen and are projected to continue to fall all through next year at a minimum, because inventory is rising. Inventory is where supply meets demand. There are fewer houses being listed but WAY fewer buyers.

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-homes-linger-on-market/[/quote]

The linked article says that in Washington DC, prices fell 2% over last year, and that is the first time prices have fallen since 2016. That isn't even a dent in prices given how much they went up over the last 2+ years (and were going up steadily before that). I'm all for home prices coming down. I think it needs to happen. But what we've seen isn't all that much help. Even another 10% still has prices way higher than pre-pandemic. And part of it is people like PP who are not selling because they could never get a deal like they have.  [/quote]

Prices have fallen 2% year over year. That means the insane spike that happened this spring has been erased. We are now at prices lower than November 2021. I assume you do not understand how monetary policy works and have not been watching the financial news if you think that the Fed’s rate hikes have had their full effect on the market.

The fact that prices went up so quickly in such a short period of time is exactly why they can go down quickly, too. Even a 20% drop means everyone except those who bought in 2021-22 will be in great shape. It would be much more sticky if the incline was long and gradual.[/quote]

So, yes, prices are down slightly y/y. That was my point exactly. You are talking about a crash, but there is no evidence that a crash is imminent. Frankly, I wish it were because prices need to come down, but there is no reason to believe it will happen absent a pretty severe recession, and all signs right now are pointing to a soft landing. For prices to get back even to pre-pandemic levels it would take much more aggressive fed actions than we've seen or are likely to see.

And for the people saying that they'd never pay X for a house because they got a great deal, I get it, I feel the same way, but that is a historical anomaly. Houses are still affordable in this area compared to savings and income, so people are willing to spend more on housing. If anything, we will see discretionary spending reduced -- people will buy the Volt instead of the Tesla or whatever -- but I don't think we'll see it for housing. But I guess we will see. [/quote]

No one said anything about a “crash” or prices being back to prepandemic levels. The fact is, [b]Powell himself has stated that house prices are disconnected from fundamentals[/b] and that we are getting ready to see the other side of the “housing bubble” (yes he used that phrase).  There are so, so many signs that prices are dropping (including the actual data which unambiguously shows prices declining). Do you understand that during the last bubble, prices slowly declined from late 2005 to 2012? Seven years of declines. I’m not sure why you’re expecting everything to drop overnight. That said, prices are declining at a pace even more rapid than they did during the last bubble, so…[/quote]

Plenty of people in this thread are talking about a crash being imminent. Maybe that wasn't you -- obviously hard to tell on an anonymous message board. And plenty of people speculating that prices will go down 20+%. Neither of those seem remotely realistic. I'm not a realtor. Just a random house buyer.

As to Jay Powell, where did he say the bolded statement? That would surprise me coming from him.

As for prices dropping, I'm not impressed by a sub 2% y/y drop. If you posted the Redfin link upthread, the rest of the data is even less encouraging for those looking for deals on houses. And you cannot be serious suggesting that this is any way comparable to the GFC, if that's what you're saying. If you are saying that we'll see 7 years of price declines, I guess we'll see in 7 years, but I seriously doubt it. Employment is strong. The economy overall is very strong. People have a ton of equity around here. Savings are very high, especially for the top 10% of earners in this country. Inventory is very low and no reason to believe supply is on the way to push prices down further, at least not in this area. [/quote]

There are many respected analysts forecasting 20% declines. Note that the only analysts who see prices being stable (or rising LOL) are those with a vested interest in house prices staying high. https://fortune.com/2023/01/05/housing-market-something-big-is-happening-home-prices-2023-2024-forecast-prediction/amp/

As for the Fed comments:

https://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-u-s-housing-bubble-formed-during-pandemic_c

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/powell-warns-of-correction-in-once-red-hot-us-housing-market

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