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[quote=Anonymous]Belarus' government seems to be as worried as Russia's about making it though this winter.

“The Belarusian army is weak and demotivated, and it is not willing to fight with Ukraine, which means that Lukashenko will try to give Putin anything but Belarusian soldiers,” Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov told The Associated Press on Tuesday. “Lukashenko is letting Putin know: ‘I will help, but I won’t fight.'"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/belarus-army-likely-little-impact-085607697.html

I agree.  I think Lukashenko is fearful that once their military sees what's actually happening in Ukraine first hand, there's a bigger issue those same troops will bring the morale problems back to the other military units, or that they may surrender or even turn on the government.  The last thing Putin needs right now is yet another uprising on his hands.

"Subordination of state security bodies exclusively to the President of Belarus is provided by it; its system is improved,"
https://news.yahoo.com/lukashenko-decides-state-security-agencies-204757832.html

Lukashenko is circling wagons ahead of the likely food shortages this winter.  My guess is that he is neither trusted nor respected by his own government officials, so has to do this to ensure his own survival.

"Belarus has released 20 T-72 tanks from storage and sent them to Belgorod Oblast, Russia [on the northeastern border with Ukraine - ed.]"
https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-sends-first-shipment-t-042020670.html

The transfer of T-72's is an example of posturing.  T-72's were top of the line in 1967 (e.g. Vietnam Era) and stop being manufactured over 40 years ago (1973).  Twenty of them isn't enough to change anything.  Ukraine has sufficient anti-tank weaponry to deal with them in short order.  More likely it's to get the tanks out of the hands of his own military.  He may suspect that they could be used against the few loyalists he has left?[/quote]

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