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[quote=Anonymous]DP.

First of all, I think Putin isn't going to fall from power that easily.  Replaced by a strongman nutcase looking for his seat maybe, not not necessarily collapse.  He was smart to make arrests quickly at the beginning of the war effort and any real resistance fled the country.  What is more likely is a slow devolution from disgruntled military returning from Ukraine and the families from the dead, which takes time.

Second, although economics hurt Russia's younger generation, older Russian's aren't wallflowers.  The older generation just fall back on their Stalin-style war gardens.  For them it's same-old same-old.  In the meantime, the Russian male youth that would cause issues are all getting drafted and ground up into hamburger in Ukraine, or thrown in jail.  Middle aged are mostly falling in line to avoid issues.

Finally, you really have to wonder - is Putin really losing it, his inner circle knows it, so he's being goaded and managed by his inner circle to chew up the supporters willing to follow him?  There is a real possibility that someone eyeing his position is helping to weaken Putin's absolute power within the country.  This is the way to do that by turning the entire country against him.  If this is the case, then I think that person is far more dangerous than Putin himself.  Who is that more dangerous person?  And I wonder if Putin figured it out?  Hmm..

You have to remember the pre-Uke war context.  Russia was internally dealing with covid trying to cover-up the full extent of the damage, reeling from the "don't call me dimon" revelations, and on the road to public Yelsin-style regime change.  Putin's solution?  Same as Hitler's - distract everyone with a war.  It's just that it got out of hand.  Now he can't back down because failure is weakness, and weakness is political death in Russia.

Mark my words, the buzzards are circling over the Kremlin, but it's a slow death so far.  I give it three to five years before the whole thing blows up, and it will be bloody with a lot more "housecleaning".

In the meantime, as Russia's influence weakens, the East turns towards China, and Russia's south starts to disintegrate with ethnic rivalries.  The dominos are lining up for a major change within the next 10-20 years.

But the one thing I absolutely wouldn't want to be right now is a Russian deep-cover agent.  If there is a shift in power, Putin loyalists closer to the top will be the first to go, and those will be the same people looking to cut deals.  But what do they have to trade?  Information.  But information has an expiration date, and if someone cuts a deal before someone else, that information is no longer a valuable commodity.  I'm sure the deep-cover agents all know this.  They know that they are just commodities to be traded when times get tough, and they know just how "loyal" their superiors are.  When the time comes, it will be a race towards the FBI's door.[/quote]

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