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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]At least in Montgomery County the NIMBY/YIMBY thing is over and thank god. The debate is boring and involves some of the very worst people on both sides.

The new debate for the next four years will be developers vs developer. I cannot wait for the YIMBY bros to learn that it is developers and not powerless old people are what controls housing supply.[/quote]

Will YIMBYs ever see that? The loudest voices in the local movement are funded by developers and land use lawyers. They’re never going to turn on their money, and any ideas that don’t align with those loud voices are immediately attacked as NIMBYism. We could eliminate density limits around the red line and YIMBYs would be blaming the ag preserve for high housing prices. YIMBYs will find any reason to blame government so they don’t have to face reality. [/quote]
There are 2 developer interests. (1) Builders that don’t currently own land or own undeveloped land and want to build greenfield, such as Toll Bros., and (2) existing Commercial Real Estate owners, like Greenhill, who want to maximize profits on properties they currently own.

The first group can build the types of entry-level homes for sale that the market is desperate for, with the primary goal to sell as quickly as possible and exit with profit. The second group, which includes Greenhill, Peterson snd FRIT, wants to extract money through literal rent, as well as economic rent seeking and therefore tries to use the government to prevent the first group from building to protect their margins.

The first group had a friend in Ike Leggett and I suspect also in David Blair, who even made a TV commercial about greenfield development at White Flint. The second group had Riemer and Hucker in their pockets and will continue to have friends in Casey Anderson, Friedson, and now Natali Fani Gonzalez.

Within 12 months, I bet that the second group is going to start sounding like NIMBYs (talking about “smart growth” and affordability requirements which YIMBYs would rightly see as impediments to housing supply) as they try to block development proposals pushed by Blair, particularly upcounty in and around places like Damascus, Boyds and Marriottsville. I think we will also see them get quite protective about White Flint when the Council and Planning spent the last 4 years pretending it did not exist (my personal take is that I was up in Towson recently and that would be a perfect site to attract a university). They will also try to block enabling infrastructure for development, particularly roads.

The fight over the SSP/“growth and infrastructure policy” in 2 years is going to be massive. [/quote]

This is why I hope Elrich pulls it out. [/quote]
It’s better this way and more honest. Without their bogeyman to blame, they will be on the clock to produce results.

My guess is that once enough developers are satisfied with their subsidies, “affordable housing” gets ignored and loses salience as an issue. All they have to do is pull the plug on the astroturf funding and poof. The politicians also don’t want to be held to any standards so they are going to try to change the subject.

The reality is that “affordable housing” as an issue in Montgomery County has always been a canard. The county is substantially more affordable than DC, Arlington and Fairfax. It’s why when pressed these folks always scream about Chevy Chase, Bethesda and Potomac from their million dollar Takoma Park craftsman’s. Because historically, the rest of the county has always been and still is affordable.

The problem in Montgomery County is not how much housing costs. It’s that the populace is getting poorer.

Expect a shift to attracting businesses and jobs very soon. [/quote]

“Affordable housing” is already being ignored. Planning is just focused on “more attainable housing” now. It sounds similar but it can’t be measured so they will be able to claim victory without imposing on developers’ profits. [/quote]

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