Reply to Just realized application fee alone will cost $1000+

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]DC is not even planning to apply for that many, probably around 15, which is not much for high stat kids, since their reach and target schools overlap, it's like playing the lottery[/quote]

Not independent odds, so no, it's not like buying more tickets.[/quote]

Wrong, they are entirely independent events, despite this being impossible to gage WRT college applications.  Your acceptance or rejection at one school does not change the odds of the decision at another school, so they remain entirely independent events. The bizarreness of this process does not change the rules of mathematics.

Dependent events are like pulling a red card from a deck reduces the odds of the next one being red also.  It's how card counting is effective.[/quote]
  
The event is not the reader, it's the applicant.[/quote]

The event is the result - acceptance, rejection, or WL.  Red or Black.  2 through 12.

Your decision from Harvard has no effect on your decision from Yale, Penn State, or anywhere else.  Therefore they are absolutely independent events.

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

https://www.cuemath.com/data/independent-events/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)

[/quote]

Doing the same thing 14 times and expecting something different to happen the next time is stupid.[/quote]

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