Reply to Keep Glover Park & Stoddert Together

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The future kids aren't going to live in the same houses as the current kids.  That would be a large gap between the ages of kids in a single household.  And the Palisades allows no development other than loudly demanding a school as seen above.  Any kids moving in will be matched by kids moving out.  
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More "Foxhaller Facts." The Office of Planning is predicting strong growth in the school-age population within the Key and Mann boundaries. For up to ten years out these predictions are very accurate because the kids have already been born. Their projections are based on existing housing. [/quote]

The projections are entirely based on kids moving away from privates to public. Not from 'more families' moving to the Palisades. On the other hand, they do project housing growth on the Wisconsin corridor. But this school isn't exactly near that corridor.[/quote]

This is entirely untrue. It is so far removed from the truth I'd have to characterize it as made up.

Here is the methodology the Office of Planning and DME use: the city is divided into 45 "neighborhood clusters," each one is about 15,000 people. For each cluster the Office of Planning uses US Census data to project the population out into the future. Included in the projections are numbers for school-age children. The DME's office takes the current enrollment for each school and breaks it down by cluster. They then apply the percentage growth that OOP is projecting for each cluster to each school's enrollment to get an enrollment projection for that school.

This methodology assumes that there is absolutely no change in behavior -- that everyone keeps going to the same schools in the same proportions as currently. Clearly that assumption isn't going to be true but it's probably the best assumption overall.

The backdrop to all of this is that city-wide the school-age population is growing rapidly. OOP is predicting by 2027 it will be over 130,000 for the first time since the baby boomers were in school, with over 120,000 of those kids in public school.  In fact, one of the criticisms of the DME's projections is that they assumed that the share of kids going to private school is going to remain constant, at about 10%. However, that would require a massive increase in the number of private school seats, which those schools don't have the ability to create because for the most part they are constrained by zoning. And the projections assume that the charter schools will also be able to increase their seats quickly, which they probably won't be able to do either. So the likelihood is that DCPS -- which unlike the charters and privates can't turn anyone away -- will experience higher than projected growth. [/quote]

Thanks! this is helpful. My google-fu sucks, do you have a link to the DCPS projections? [/quote]

https://dme.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/dme/publication/attachments/DC_MFP_2019_Feb%2021_Final_compressed.pdf
[/quote]

So ward 2 and 3 only have 10 schools each, but all the other wards have 20-40. Wow. Yeah, things are going to get really bad before they get better. As of 2018, there were on 7K students from W3. Ward 5 had 15K. (DCPS+PCS)

According to Fig 2.16, both new schools with have the worst transit access of ANY DCPS facility.

One note, their methodology takes the capture rate trends from 2015-2018 and extrapolates forward. So there is some element of diversion from private to DCPS baked in (at the neighborhood level).[/quote]

Ward analysis is a bit misleading because ward boundaries don't align with school boundaries. The largest elementary school in the city is Lafayette, with 900+ students. It's in Ward 4, but in the sliver of Ward 4 that is west of the park. Most of its students live in Ward 3. Kids in the southern half of Ward 3 got to middle school at Hardy, which is in Ward 2. Both Deal and JR have attendance boundaries that includes  Wards 1, 2, 3 and 4.

The facilities plan says that 94% of DCPS schools are within a half mile of a transit stop. Since both Foxhall and MacArthur are on a couple of bus lines I'd say they're better off than those schools. [/quote]

Before the pandemic those lines were very crowded in the morning. It’s one thing for older middle school and high school kids to jump on a metro bus. It’s another thing to ask elementary age kids to do it. [/quote]

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