Reply to If you bought 2005-2007 and got hit, tell me your story, location and age

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]That’s so surprising to me. We bought a row house in DC for 420k in late 2006. We have done some work on it—probably 150k in upgrades—and it’s worth 900 to one million now. Of course, we haven’t actually tried to sell it! I thought most of the DC area was similar. [/quote]

When you look at the price rise from 420 to 900, there are two primary drivers — the broader market and DC gentrification. In this case DC gentrification did the heavy lifting and this example doesn’t really reflect the broader market. [/quote]
I'm not sure that's true.  Arlington saw a similar gain with no gentrification.  My guess is that gain isn't evenly spread.  There was a drop somewhere between 2006 and 2010, but then rapid appreciation from 2010-2016.  Then things seemed to slow a bit it was a slower climb.

We bought near H St NE in 2010 for $420k and sold in 2016 for $900k (having invested about $15k in renovations plus lots of sweat equity).  That gain was a combo of market recovery and gentrification.   We then bought in Arlington then for $930k and could sell now for around $1.4m (having invested about $200k in renos), which is zero gentrification and all market shift.  [/quote]

Arlington was never scary like parts of DC, but Arlington did “gentrify” in the sense that higher income people started moving there. In the ‘90’s, Arlington was where mid-level feds lived, and it was where first year associates and Hill staff with families lived (I was one of them).  Law firm partners lived in Great Falls, Potomac and McLean. Arlington was considered to be pretty déclassé.  As traffic got worse, those people started moving in closer and adding on to and tearing down the old houses & bringing property values up in the process. [/quote]
That may be true over the longer term 30+ years, but I didn’t any appreciable gentrification between 2016-2022 to drive the house price increases that we've seen.  If anything Ballston and Clarendon (the closest urban centers to my house) are less nice now than they were in 2016.[/quote]

Arlington definitely didn’t see the change that parts of DC did, but the demographics have continued to change, as has the housing stock, even if it’s less dramatic. That is why you saw 115% appreciation in your DC house in six years and “only” 50% increase in six years in Arlington. The post-covid premium for SFHs has to be added in there, as well.  [/quote]

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