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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Does anyone have a source on the false positive rate for these tests? Genuine question. There are lots of anecdotes like rice university, and the two “fleeting contact” people in the Australia outbreak, but is there any robust data on it?[/quote]

The rate of false positives appears low on the surface. But the problem is that when there is low community prevalence, the odds of any positive result being false go up. The math isn't immediately intuitive, but if you think about it for a second, you'll get it.  Basically if the chance of covid is 1/1000, and the chance of a false positive is 1/100, then it's MUCH more likely that you have a false positive than you have covid.

Now, if the consequences of a false positive are minimal, then NBD. But the problem is that the consequences of a false positive are currently considerable, because the child and possilbly the entire class will have to quarantine.

The answer to this problem IMO is more testing.  If we had a "test to stay" policy where close contacts just tested every day and didn't have to quarantine, then the primary negative consequence disappears.  Similarly, a positive rapid followed by a negative PCR should allow the child to return to school immediately (assuming no symptoms consistent with covid of course).  That would mean the consequences of a false positive are drastically reduced to just missing maybe 2 days of school.  [/quote]

Sorry to be clear - the ratio of false positives to actual covids goes up as the prevalence of covid declines.  not the independent odds of a false positive.  MATH IS HARD!  Here's a more cogent explanation:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/04/19/schools-covid-testing-cost/

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