Reply to High School Overcrowding 2024

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Lots of public schools closed or merged in DC, Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince Georges Counties, and all over the DC area in the 80s. Some independent and parochial schools also closed in the 80s-90s due to the population decline. The region could be on the cusp of a similarly dramatic population decline due to the currently low birth rates. [/quote]

But the region was in economic decline and had less in migration.

The population of schools is tied more to economic and population growth than any given birth rate.

Are we forecasting population growth in Arlington, but only of DINKS?[/quote]

I remember Lisa Stengle saying at a Board meeting that APS projects growth by birth rate, and then housing development.  [/quote]

Is that legitimate, I think we have a lot of people who move to Arlington [b]WITH kids in tow[/b]?[/quote]

That's why housing development factors in.  They presume "x" average # of kids per unit per housing type. Though they still underestimate multi-family housing student generation, esp committed affordable housing.  
There's only so much they can do to factor-in generational changeovers in existing housing stock sales.
[/quote]

Sure, but the consequence of having too few seats is much great than too many. And it appears it’s cyclical, so you have a drop for a decade and then it shoots back up again. If we hadn’t closed so many elementary schools or converted to senior centers we would t have had the boundary blood feud of the fall. [/quote]
I agree!  You can always close down seats; but you can't just magically open them when they're needed.  They need to be available before they're needed.  And so what if there are some extras?  That's really a complaint??[/quote]

Fundamentally, parents and families are a minority in Arlington, so any “excess” funding to education for a “just in case” school capacity causes lots of drama, they would much rather funnel the money into dog parts and AH, etc.[/quote]

Quality of schools is a major driving force of property values.  They'll complain soon enough as soon as APS' reputation tanks.[/quote]

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